Spatio-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of cultivated land fragmentation in Jilin Province

Cultivated land fragmentation (CLF) greatly hinders broad-acre farming and the effective use of resources. The last two decades have witnessed rapid urbanization and industrialization in Jilin Province, but analyses focusing on the spatiotemporal dynamics and determinants of CLF remain insufficient. This study analyzes data from 2000 to 2020, employing the entropy weight method to quantify fragmentation intensity and conducting a spatiotemporal analysis to examine its temporal evolution. To identify influencing factors, we utilized optimal parameter-based geographical detectors (OPGD), the random forest model (RF), and SHAP values. The findings reveal a sustained increase in fragmentation intensity, which has remained generally medium-to-high. Spatially, it clusters in distribution, being higher in the eastern and western parts and lower in the middle. The year of 2010 marked a turning point for the research area, with the rate of variation in cultivated land fragmentation declining after that year. A synergistic effect of natural and socioeconomic factors is evident, with elevation and slope exerting a significant positive association with CLF. These findings offer valuable guidance for advancing large-scale agricultural practices, promoting agricultural modernization, and enhancing food security.