Regional variations and dynamic coordination mechanisms in the coupling of new-type urbanization with agricultural and rural modernization
摘要
Against the backdrop of advancing rural revitalization, coordinated urban-rural development acts as a crucial pillar for achieving common prosperity. Based on panel data covering 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2010 to 2021, this study establishes a comprehensive assessment framework to measure the developmental levels of new-type urbanization (NTU) and agricultural and rural modernization (ARM). Empirical examinations are conducted by integrating coupling coordination analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, panel vector autoregression (PVAR), and the Geographical Detector approach. Results demonstrate that the overall coupling level between the two systems exhibits a rising trend, yet the evolutionary process remains in the transitional phase from incoordination toward preliminary coordination. Spatially, the coupling coordination degree presents a descending pattern: eastern region > central region > western region, and inter-regional disparity is identified as the dominant source of overall regional differences. ARM generates a notable positive driving effect on NTU, whereas the reverse facilitating impact of NTU on ARM remains comparatively weak. Economic growth, transportation infrastructure construction, human capital accumulation, and industrial structure upgrading serve as core driving forces. The best policy implication in this case is that special attention should be given to the development of ARM, region-specific policies should be implemented, both inter-urban and inter-rural factors should be permitted to be transferred back-and-forth, and more effective institutional coordination should be introduced as a way to ensure high-quality interconnected development of the two systems.