Multidimensional effects of digital inclusive finance toward carbon emissions in agriculture: empirical evidence from 31 Chinese Provinces

Amid China’s dual-carbon policy initiatives, fostering low-emission pathways in agriculture has increasingly assumed critical importance in policy design. As a newly evolving financial model, digital inclusive finance offers critical support for advancing environmentally sustainable agricultural restructuring. Accordingly, exploring how digital inclusive finance influences agricultural carbon outputs is of considerable importance for optimizing financial support systems and enhancing agricultural carbon governance. Using data covering 31 provincial-level regions during 2011–2023 in China, the analysis applies fixed-effects models, mediation analysis, threshold testing, and spatial Durbin models with the aim of assessing how the development of digital inclusive finance advances carbon mitigation in the agricultural sector. Empirical evidence indicates that it significantly reduces carbon output in agriculture. The carbon-reduction effect is mainly realized through two pathways: the advancement of agricultural technology and more efficient allocation of agricultural production factors. Among different components of digital inclusive finance, the breadth of coverage exhibits a stronger emission-mitigation effect than usage depth or the degree of digitalization. In addition, the suppressing effect on agricultural carbon emissions exhibits greater intensity in principal grain-selling regions as well as eastern China. As the coverage of agricultural insurance expands, the effect of carbon emission reduction exhibits a nonlinear pattern, characterized by a relatively slow decline at the initial stage followed by a more rapid decrease thereafter. Digital inclusive finance also generates significant negative spillover effects on neighboring provinces with similar agricultural development characteristics. Based on these findings, this paper recommends further integrating digital inclusive finance into regional green development strategies, so as to facilitate a more comprehensive low-carbon transition in agriculture.