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<p>The Northwest Loess Plateau is an ecologically fragile region subjected to the combined impacts of climate variability and human activities. To examine the coupled effects of precipitation, land use, and water environment, this study integrated the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to predict future precipitation trends and land-use patterns under multiple scenarios.InfoWorks ICM sewer–river coupled model, along with correlation analysis, was then applied to quantify the hydrological and water quality responses to multiple driving factors. The results indicated that the MPI-ESM1-2-HR exhibited the best overall simulation performance, and the land-use simulation achieved an overall accuracy exceeding 87% (Kappa coefficient was 0.784). During 2025–2030, precipitation is predicted to present an initial decreasing trend followed by a gradual increase. By 2030, artificial surfaces increase markedly and croplands decrease under the urban-expansion scenario, while wetlands and water bodies expand under the ecological-protection scenario. Node overflow and pollutant concentrations reach their peak under the urban expansion scenario, while they remain relatively low under the ecological protection scenario. Overall, the findings suggest significant interactions between precipitation and land-use change in regulating watershed eco-hydrological conditions, and provide evidence that can inform regional water resources management and ecological conservation.</p>

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Effects of multiple future environmental changes on water quantity and quality of Xihan River Basin, Northwest loess Plateau China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月19日

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  • Peng Wang,
  • Yajun Wang,
  • Zhaolong Li,
  • Sen Li

摘要

The Northwest Loess Plateau is an ecologically fragile region subjected to the combined impacts of climate variability and human activities. To examine the coupled effects of precipitation, land use, and water environment, this study integrated the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to predict future precipitation trends and land-use patterns under multiple scenarios.InfoWorks ICM sewer–river coupled model, along with correlation analysis, was then applied to quantify the hydrological and water quality responses to multiple driving factors. The results indicated that the MPI-ESM1-2-HR exhibited the best overall simulation performance, and the land-use simulation achieved an overall accuracy exceeding 87% (Kappa coefficient was 0.784). During 2025–2030, precipitation is predicted to present an initial decreasing trend followed by a gradual increase. By 2030, artificial surfaces increase markedly and croplands decrease under the urban-expansion scenario, while wetlands and water bodies expand under the ecological-protection scenario. Node overflow and pollutant concentrations reach their peak under the urban expansion scenario, while they remain relatively low under the ecological protection scenario. Overall, the findings suggest significant interactions between precipitation and land-use change in regulating watershed eco-hydrological conditions, and provide evidence that can inform regional water resources management and ecological conservation.