What is China's copper supply risk under clean energy transition scenarios?

Copper resources are widely used in power networks and clean energy tech like PV panels, wind turbines, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). Due to limited domestic resource endowments, China’s copper supply chain exhibits a relatively high degree of vulnerability. Based on six supply chain stages, this study constructs an assessment system for China’s copper supply chain risks and adopts an improved Benefit of Doubt (BOD) model to evaluate risk levels and their evolution. The findings of this study reveal that: (1) The risk values of China’s copper supply chain have shown a significant upward trend in the past 15 years, with the largest increase in 2015 and 2020; (2) The current supply chain risks in copper are mainly concentrated at the stages of import, production, and application; and the recycling risk has a great potential for reducing the copper supply chain risks in the future. Based on these findings, this paper proposes two policy recommendations: (1) Develop diversified channels for importing copper resources and optimize overseas investment patterns; (2) Improve the domestic supply capacity of secondary copper resources and reduce the risks at the recycling stage.