Ecosystem service supply-demand relationships and key drivers from the perspective of the water-carbon-food: A case study of Jiziwan, Yellow River Basin

Rapid industrialization and urbanization in the Yellow River Basin have heightened the demand for natural resources and food, thereby exacerbating the existing imbalance between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs). Uncovering the patterns of supply-demand matching and their underlying mechanisms within water-carbon-food (WCF) nexus is important for reconciling the conflict between ecological conservation and food security. We used the InVEST, modified CASA, and empirical models to analyze the dynamics of supply and demand for water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and grain yield (GY) in Jiziwan, Yellow River Basin, and identify their primary drivers. We quantified these relationships within the WCF and investigated their underlying drivers. The results showed that: (1) the supply of WY, CS, and GY in Jiziwan increased from 2000 to 2020, accompanied by a corresponding increase in overall demand; (2) the supply-demand ratios for these ESs exhibited an overall upward trend, with low supply-low demand regions displaying notable spatial concurrence; and (3) Human activities constituted the fundamental and direct cause of the supply-demand relationships for WY, CS, and GY. Meteorological factors influence ESs through direct effects and their impacts on vegetation growth. Notably the slope had a significant negative effect on the water yield ESDR, which was − 0.140. Ultimately, we established ecological restoration zones based on the relationships between supply and demand for ESs and proposed corresponding restoration strategies. These findings offer valuable guidance for assessing resource carrying capacity and promoting sustainable development within the Yellow River Basin.