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<p>Urbanization is widely regarded as a double-edged process for land sustainability, yet its long-term ecological consequences remain insufficiently understood, particularly from a spatially interconnected perspective. Using provincial panel data for China spanning 2003–2023, this study constructs comprehensive indicators of new-type urbanization and cultivated land ecological efficiency, and systematically examines their spatiotemporal evolution, spatial spillover effects, and moderating mechanisms within a spatial econometric framework. The results reveal three central findings. First, new-type urbanization and cultivated land ecological efficiency exhibit pronounced regional heterogeneity and dynamic coupling patterns, evolving from low-level imbalance toward high-level coordination, with eastern regions leading and central and western regions gradually converging. Second, a statistically significant quadratic relationship exists between NTU and CLEE, indicating a nonlinear evolution pattern in which the marginal effects of urbanization vary across development stages. While low-quality urban expansion initially suppresses ecological efficiency, whereas higher-quality urbanization promotes recovery through industrial upgrading, infrastructure improvement, and more intensive land use. Importantly, this relationship is strongly spatially contingent, as urbanization generates substantial spillover effects across regions, with indirect effects consistently exceeding direct effects and shifting from negative competition to positive coordination over time. Third, multidimensional moderating effects indicate that the NTU–CLEE relationship is strongly conditioned by structural and institutional factors. Industrial structure upgrading and population ageing primarily reshape the curvature and sensitivity of the relationship, while urban–rural consumption disparity alters both its level and variability. Agricultural fiscal support exerts a stabilizing effect by raising overall ecological efficiency and reducing fluctuations across different urbanization stages. In contrast, green innovation capacity does not exhibit a statistically significant moderating effect, suggesting that its ecological benefits have not yet been fully transmitted into cultivated land systems. The study underscores the importance of regionally differentiated development strategies, cross-regional collaborative governance, and supportive structural and policy environments to transform urbanization into a genuine ecological opportunity for cultivated land systems.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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When urbanization becomes an ecological opportunity: Nonlinear and spatially dependent effects of new-type urbanization on cultivated land eco-efficiency in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月23日

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  • Kun Ge,
  • Huanhuan Chen,
  • Xiaoyuan Liu,
  • Mengling Zhang,
  • Rong Liu

摘要

Urbanization is widely regarded as a double-edged process for land sustainability, yet its long-term ecological consequences remain insufficiently understood, particularly from a spatially interconnected perspective. Using provincial panel data for China spanning 2003–2023, this study constructs comprehensive indicators of new-type urbanization and cultivated land ecological efficiency, and systematically examines their spatiotemporal evolution, spatial spillover effects, and moderating mechanisms within a spatial econometric framework. The results reveal three central findings. First, new-type urbanization and cultivated land ecological efficiency exhibit pronounced regional heterogeneity and dynamic coupling patterns, evolving from low-level imbalance toward high-level coordination, with eastern regions leading and central and western regions gradually converging. Second, a statistically significant quadratic relationship exists between NTU and CLEE, indicating a nonlinear evolution pattern in which the marginal effects of urbanization vary across development stages. While low-quality urban expansion initially suppresses ecological efficiency, whereas higher-quality urbanization promotes recovery through industrial upgrading, infrastructure improvement, and more intensive land use. Importantly, this relationship is strongly spatially contingent, as urbanization generates substantial spillover effects across regions, with indirect effects consistently exceeding direct effects and shifting from negative competition to positive coordination over time. Third, multidimensional moderating effects indicate that the NTU–CLEE relationship is strongly conditioned by structural and institutional factors. Industrial structure upgrading and population ageing primarily reshape the curvature and sensitivity of the relationship, while urban–rural consumption disparity alters both its level and variability. Agricultural fiscal support exerts a stabilizing effect by raising overall ecological efficiency and reducing fluctuations across different urbanization stages. In contrast, green innovation capacity does not exhibit a statistically significant moderating effect, suggesting that its ecological benefits have not yet been fully transmitted into cultivated land systems. The study underscores the importance of regionally differentiated development strategies, cross-regional collaborative governance, and supportive structural and policy environments to transform urbanization into a genuine ecological opportunity for cultivated land systems.

Graphical abstract