Pathways to sustainability for growing coal-resource cities: evidence from the Turpan-Hami energy base
摘要
China’s coal-resource cities face a critical dilemma of achieving carbon neutrality while ensuring energy security. However, the distinctive frontier remains understudied. Particularly in Xinjiang province, a new leading coal base with unique governance complexities. Using the long-range energy alternative planning system model and regression analysis, this study examines the decarbonization effects of various mitigation strategies by 2060, taking the Turpan-Hami Energy Base (Tuha Basin) as a representative case. Furthermore, the mechanism among resource dependence, economic growth, and environmental governance is explored. The general decarbonization principles for growing coal-resource cities are summarized. The results show that: (1) High resource dependency does not necessarily lead to environmental degradation and economic decline. Coal-resource cities can achieve green industrialization through industrial upgrading toward high-value and cleaner directions, enabling both economic growth and lower energy intensity. (2) Emission mitigation effectiveness ranks as: industrial chain extension (44.42%)> service sector development (29.87%) > breakthrough green technologies (15.73%) > conventional green technologies (9.98%). Industrial restructuring proves significantly more effective than green technologies. (3) The resource dependence of the Tuha Basin has an N-shaped relationship with economic growth and an inverse N-shaped relationship with environmental governance. Breakthroughs in ultra-high voltage transmission technology and the construction of coal transportation channels have effectively eliminated the economic constraints on coal production in the Tuha Basin, propelling the region into its “second growth curve”. This study provides a typical case reference for China’s growing coal-resource cities to escape the resource curse trap.