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<p>The establishment of a land-use control system that fosters multi-system synergy is crucial for sustainable development in urban suburbs. Moving beyond traditional approaches constrained by single factors, this study introduces an “urban-blue-green” synergy framework to comprehensively evaluate interactions among socio-economic, water resource, and ecological subsystems. We propose an integrated SD-CLUE-S framework based on a “scale-form” logic to assess the impacts of land-use change. Applied to the suburbs of Tianjin, China, the method demonstrated high accuracy, with a kappa coefficient of 0.840 for the CLUE-S model and an error of less than 10% for the SD model. Results indicate that the coupling coordination degree of the “urban-blue-green” system fluctuated between 0.532 (barely coordinated) and 0.647 (primarily coordinated) from 2012 to 2022. By 2035, the conservation and development synergy scenario achieves excellent coordination (0.904), significantly outperforming the water resource protection priority (0.892), ecological protection priority (0.863), economic development priority (0.730), and status quo (0.718) scenarios. This study enhances the understanding of land-use change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and provides scientific support for suburban land-use planning and management.</p>

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Multi-scenario land use simulation and coupling coordination assessment of urban–blue–green systems in suburban areas

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月9日

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  • Muhan Li,
  • Zesheng Li,
  • Saiyi Chen,
  • Tian Chen

摘要

The establishment of a land-use control system that fosters multi-system synergy is crucial for sustainable development in urban suburbs. Moving beyond traditional approaches constrained by single factors, this study introduces an “urban-blue-green” synergy framework to comprehensively evaluate interactions among socio-economic, water resource, and ecological subsystems. We propose an integrated SD-CLUE-S framework based on a “scale-form” logic to assess the impacts of land-use change. Applied to the suburbs of Tianjin, China, the method demonstrated high accuracy, with a kappa coefficient of 0.840 for the CLUE-S model and an error of less than 10% for the SD model. Results indicate that the coupling coordination degree of the “urban-blue-green” system fluctuated between 0.532 (barely coordinated) and 0.647 (primarily coordinated) from 2012 to 2022. By 2035, the conservation and development synergy scenario achieves excellent coordination (0.904), significantly outperforming the water resource protection priority (0.892), ecological protection priority (0.863), economic development priority (0.730), and status quo (0.718) scenarios. This study enhances the understanding of land-use change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and provides scientific support for suburban land-use planning and management.