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<p>Agriculture remains a central driver of economic growth and structural transformation in Africa, as emphasized by the Maputo and Malabo Declarations, which urge member states to allocate at least 10% of national budgets to the sector. Despite increased public agricultural spending, food insecurity persists across SSA. This study examines whether and how institutional quality conditions the effectiveness of government agricultural investment in improving food security, thereby addressing a critical gap in the literature. Using panel data for 36 SSA countries from 1996 to 2023, the analysis applies the Asymmetric Panel Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with Pooled Mean Group estimation to capture short-run and long-run dynamics across varying levels of food security, alongside the Generalized Method of Moments estimator to address potential endogeneity. The findings indicate that government agricultural investment significantly improves food availability and accessibility, particularly in more vulnerable countries, while disinvestment disproportionately harms relatively food-secure nations. Institutional quality exerts both direct and indirect effects on food security and amplifies the positive impact of agricultural investment through improved governance, policy effectiveness, and agricultural development, as confirmed by the mediation analysis. Robustness checks using Panel Corrected Standard Errors and additional indicators of food utilization and stability, alongside food availability and accessibility, confirm the consistency of the results. Sub-regional analysis reveals heterogeneity across Western, Eastern, Central, and Southern Africa, with stronger effects observed in countries characterized by higher institutional quality. The results highlight the need for institutionally responsive and region-specific agricultural investment strategies to achieve sustainable food security improvements in SSA.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Does the quality of institutions influence government agricultural investments in ensuring food security in Sub-Saharan Africa?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月28日

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  • Abdul Salami Bah,
  • Yongqiang Wang,
  • Yuchun Zhu,
  • Aklok Getnet

摘要

Agriculture remains a central driver of economic growth and structural transformation in Africa, as emphasized by the Maputo and Malabo Declarations, which urge member states to allocate at least 10% of national budgets to the sector. Despite increased public agricultural spending, food insecurity persists across SSA. This study examines whether and how institutional quality conditions the effectiveness of government agricultural investment in improving food security, thereby addressing a critical gap in the literature. Using panel data for 36 SSA countries from 1996 to 2023, the analysis applies the Asymmetric Panel Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with Pooled Mean Group estimation to capture short-run and long-run dynamics across varying levels of food security, alongside the Generalized Method of Moments estimator to address potential endogeneity. The findings indicate that government agricultural investment significantly improves food availability and accessibility, particularly in more vulnerable countries, while disinvestment disproportionately harms relatively food-secure nations. Institutional quality exerts both direct and indirect effects on food security and amplifies the positive impact of agricultural investment through improved governance, policy effectiveness, and agricultural development, as confirmed by the mediation analysis. Robustness checks using Panel Corrected Standard Errors and additional indicators of food utilization and stability, alongside food availability and accessibility, confirm the consistency of the results. Sub-regional analysis reveals heterogeneity across Western, Eastern, Central, and Southern Africa, with stronger effects observed in countries characterized by higher institutional quality. The results highlight the need for institutionally responsive and region-specific agricultural investment strategies to achieve sustainable food security improvements in SSA.

Graphical abstract