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<p>The Qilian Mountains (QLM) are a typical representative of arid and cold region. Changes in the ecological environment and shifts in human-land interactions have important implications for sustainable development. This study adopts residual analysis, XGBoost-SHAP, and land-use transition matrices to investigate the driving mechanisms and contributions of human activities and climate change to Net Primary Production (NPP) in the QLM from 2000 to 2022, with an emphasis on policy impacts on human-land relations. The results show that: (1) NPP in the QLM exhibited a fluctuating upward trend in 2000–2020, with increases occurring in 79.85%. (2) Among the driving factors of NPP change, temperature exerted the strongest influence, followed by precipitation, whereas other factors mainly played regulatory roles. (3) Human activities contributed 31.82% to NPP variation, while climate change accounted for 68.18%, indicating that climate change was the dominant driver. (4) After 2017, negative human activities in the QLM region significantly decreased, and the development model shifted from resource exploitation to ecological protection. These results provide empirical support for ecological restoration and sustainable development strategies in cold and arid mountain regions.</p>

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Climate and human contributions to NPP and the transformation of human-land relations in the Qilian Mountains under policy intervention

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月27日

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  • Anle Yang,
  • Xiaoping Zhang,
  • Shengdong Yang,
  • Wenjuan Cai

摘要

The Qilian Mountains (QLM) are a typical representative of arid and cold region. Changes in the ecological environment and shifts in human-land interactions have important implications for sustainable development. This study adopts residual analysis, XGBoost-SHAP, and land-use transition matrices to investigate the driving mechanisms and contributions of human activities and climate change to Net Primary Production (NPP) in the QLM from 2000 to 2022, with an emphasis on policy impacts on human-land relations. The results show that: (1) NPP in the QLM exhibited a fluctuating upward trend in 2000–2020, with increases occurring in 79.85%. (2) Among the driving factors of NPP change, temperature exerted the strongest influence, followed by precipitation, whereas other factors mainly played regulatory roles. (3) Human activities contributed 31.82% to NPP variation, while climate change accounted for 68.18%, indicating that climate change was the dominant driver. (4) After 2017, negative human activities in the QLM region significantly decreased, and the development model shifted from resource exploitation to ecological protection. These results provide empirical support for ecological restoration and sustainable development strategies in cold and arid mountain regions.