The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China’s energy trilemma coupling coordination degree
摘要
Against the backdrop of the global energy system’s transformation and upgrading, many countries, including China, have accelerated efforts to promote low-carbon energy utilization. However, in practice, China’s energy system faces the dilemma of balancing the three critical dimensions of security and reliability, economic feasibility, and green cleanliness. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of China’s “energy trilemma”, thereby providing insights to promote coordinated development among these dimensions. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces, this research employs the Vertical and Horizontal Scatter Degree Method and a coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the current state of China’s energy trilemma and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of its coordinated development. Furthermore, based on the Technology-Organization-Environment framework, the study investigates the factors influencing the coupling coordination degree. The findings reveal that China’s overall and provincial-level energy security, economic feasibility, and environmental friendliness have improved, with the energy trilemma developing in a more coordinated direction. Regional disparities in coordinated development have narrowed, though some areas still lag in green cleanliness. Additionally, the study demonstrates that R&D investment, human capital level, and industrial pollution control significantly and positively influence the coupling coordination degree of the energy trilemma, with notable heterogeneity across regions, population densities, and energy endowments. Based on these conclusions, the study proposes targeted policy recommendations to support the coordinated development of China’s energy system, offering valuable references for policymakers and stakeholders.