Farmers’ endogenous choices and willingness to pay drive the adoption of soil remediation technologies in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Farmers’ stated willingness to pay (WTP) for land improvement may be relevant for understanding the low uptake of soil remediation practices despite substantial public investment. Using a household survey of 886 farm decision-makers from six provinces in the Yellow River Basin, data reflecting end-2022 conditions, this study examines whether a binary stated WTP (Yes/No) is associated with adoption of at least one of four soil remediation practices. To address potential endogeneity in stated WTP due to self-selection on unobservables, we employ an Endogenous Switching Probit (ESP) model estimated via full-information maximum likelihood and report counterfactual adoption outcomes (ATT and ATU). Results indicate that ignoring endogeneity understates the estimated association between stated WTP and adoption. After correcting for selection, the estimated ATT implies a 5.7% higher adoption probability among farmers who report willingness to pay. The estimated ATU is substantially larger; however, this reflects a model-based counterfactual scenario in which currently unwilling farmers are assumed to become willing, and it should be interpreted as an upper-bound counterfactual rather than a direct policy prediction. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that effects vary across farmer groups, consistent with differences in environmental awareness and experience. These findings highlight the importance of carefully designed interventions that address both informational and cognitive factors and perceived financial feasibility when promoting soil remediation practices.