Scholarlink

<p>Agriculture plays a crucial role in low-carbon development and achieving dual-carbon goals through its carbon sink potential. This study measures Agricultural Carbon Emissions (ACE), Agricultural Carbon Sinks (ACS), and Agricultural Net Carbon Sinks (ANCS) in Jiangxi Province from 2008 to 2023. The Tobit model was used to analyze the factors influencing ANCS, while the GM(1,1) model predicted its future trend from 2024 to 2035. The results show that ACE in Jiangxi Province exhibited a three-phase pattern: growth, followed by decline, and eventual stabilization. Rice cultivation was the dominant source of ACE, accounting for 66.089%, while ACS and ANCS showed steady growth, with ANCS rising from 5.730 million tons in 2008 to 6.857 million tons in 2023. Non-rice crops, such as vegetables and oilseeds, increasingly contributed to ACS, improving the stability and diversity of the ACS system. Regression analysis revealed that agricultural labor, urbanization, energy use, ANCS intensity, and the level of rural economic development positively influenced ANCS, whereas the standard of living of rural residents had no significant effect. Forecasts suggest that ANCS will continue to grow from 6.757 million tons in 2024 to 7.587 million tons in 2035, highlighting Jiangxi Province's significant potential to enhance carbon sinks while controlling emissions. Based on these findings, four key recommendations are made: (1) Strengthen low-carbon measures in rice cultivation. (2) Optimize the agricultural industry structure to enhance ACS. (3) Promote green transformation in agriculture. (4) Unlock future carbon sink potential by investing in low-carbon agricultural technologies.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Agricultural net carbon sinks in Jiangxi Province: measurement, forecast and influencing factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月6日

查看全文
  • Xieqihua Liu,
  • Yi Zhu,
  • Chao Feng,
  • Linjie Feng,
  • Su Lin

摘要

Agriculture plays a crucial role in low-carbon development and achieving dual-carbon goals through its carbon sink potential. This study measures Agricultural Carbon Emissions (ACE), Agricultural Carbon Sinks (ACS), and Agricultural Net Carbon Sinks (ANCS) in Jiangxi Province from 2008 to 2023. The Tobit model was used to analyze the factors influencing ANCS, while the GM(1,1) model predicted its future trend from 2024 to 2035. The results show that ACE in Jiangxi Province exhibited a three-phase pattern: growth, followed by decline, and eventual stabilization. Rice cultivation was the dominant source of ACE, accounting for 66.089%, while ACS and ANCS showed steady growth, with ANCS rising from 5.730 million tons in 2008 to 6.857 million tons in 2023. Non-rice crops, such as vegetables and oilseeds, increasingly contributed to ACS, improving the stability and diversity of the ACS system. Regression analysis revealed that agricultural labor, urbanization, energy use, ANCS intensity, and the level of rural economic development positively influenced ANCS, whereas the standard of living of rural residents had no significant effect. Forecasts suggest that ANCS will continue to grow from 6.757 million tons in 2024 to 7.587 million tons in 2035, highlighting Jiangxi Province's significant potential to enhance carbon sinks while controlling emissions. Based on these findings, four key recommendations are made: (1) Strengthen low-carbon measures in rice cultivation. (2) Optimize the agricultural industry structure to enhance ACS. (3) Promote green transformation in agriculture. (4) Unlock future carbon sink potential by investing in low-carbon agricultural technologies.