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<p>Resource-based cities (RBCs) face considerable difficulties and challenges in balancing industrial growth with carbon emission mitigation, while systematic analyses of their decoupling pathways remain limited. Focusing on 90 Chinese RBCs over the 2009–2019 period, this research investigated the decoupling correlation between industrial development and carbon emissions. Employing the Tapio decoupling index and the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), the research evaluated decoupling statuses, dynamic evolution, and underlying drivers. The results indicate that decoupling was prevalent but highly volatile during the study period. The predominant dynamic pathway followed the sequence of “decoupling→negative decoupling→fluctuation”. Significant heterogeneity was observed across city types: mature and regenerative cities demonstrated more stable decoupling performance, whereas declining and growing cities experienced frequent negative decoupling with high volatility. Mechanistically, the enabling pathway operated through “energy intensity→carbon intensity”, while the constraining pathway followed “per capita GDP &amp; population→energy intensity”, with energy intensity itself undergoing a critical shift from an enabler to a constraint. Overall, the decoupling process is characterized by significant heterogeneity and temporal volatility, driven by the complex interplay of the identified factors. These findings underscore the necessity for differentiated transition strategies and provide actionable insights for achieving synergistic industrial upgrading and carbon mitigation in RBCs.</p>

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Decoupling industrial development from carbon emissions in resource-based cities in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • Xu Wang,
  • Yang Wang,
  • Heqian Lei,
  • Xiuxiu Teng

摘要

Resource-based cities (RBCs) face considerable difficulties and challenges in balancing industrial growth with carbon emission mitigation, while systematic analyses of their decoupling pathways remain limited. Focusing on 90 Chinese RBCs over the 2009–2019 period, this research investigated the decoupling correlation between industrial development and carbon emissions. Employing the Tapio decoupling index and the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), the research evaluated decoupling statuses, dynamic evolution, and underlying drivers. The results indicate that decoupling was prevalent but highly volatile during the study period. The predominant dynamic pathway followed the sequence of “decoupling→negative decoupling→fluctuation”. Significant heterogeneity was observed across city types: mature and regenerative cities demonstrated more stable decoupling performance, whereas declining and growing cities experienced frequent negative decoupling with high volatility. Mechanistically, the enabling pathway operated through “energy intensity→carbon intensity”, while the constraining pathway followed “per capita GDP & population→energy intensity”, with energy intensity itself undergoing a critical shift from an enabler to a constraint. Overall, the decoupling process is characterized by significant heterogeneity and temporal volatility, driven by the complex interplay of the identified factors. These findings underscore the necessity for differentiated transition strategies and provide actionable insights for achieving synergistic industrial upgrading and carbon mitigation in RBCs.