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<p>Under the dual pressures of global ecological degradation and regional land resource constraints, effectively governing and optimizing production-living-ecological spaces (PLES) has become increasingly crucial, especially in ecologically vulnerable semi-arid regions. Taking the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration (GPUA)—a representative semi-arid region characterized by intensive land-use conflicts—as a case, this study integrates eco-environmental value (EV) and a Conflict Risk Index (CRI) to dynamically construct a Spatial Conflict Composite Index (SCCI). This approach reframes PLES conflicts as an eco-cost-weighted risk, thereby moving beyond conventional indices that focus solely on conflict intensity or static suitability. EV is incorporated into multi-scenario simulations of spatial conflicts to compare the ecological-cost risks associated with different development pathways and to identify conflict-prone areas characterized by high ecological stakes. Key findings include: (1) PLES presents a distribution pattern in which ecological spaces surround production and living spaces. (2) There is a decreasing trend in the number of PLES conflict zones, and the spatial distribution is gradually shifting from dispersion to clustering around regional central cities. (3) The predictions under different scenarios in the 2020–2035 period show that the farmland preservation scenario has a relatively lower number of PLES conflict areas and the lowest conflict intensity compared to other scenarios. (4) Based on the dynamic characteristics of spatial conflicts under this scenario, five distinct functional zones are delineated, and differentiated spatial governance strategies and targeted policy optimization recommendations are proposed, specifically addressing the eco-environmental vulnerabilities and land-use conflicts characteristic of semi-arid regions. These strategies provide targeted policy guidance for reconciling production, living, and ecological functions, facilitating coordinated and sustainable regional development in semi-arid areas.</p>

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Identification, prediction and optimization of conflicts in production-living-ecological space in semi-arid areas based on the perspective of eco-environmental value: a case study of Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月21日

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  • Tonghui Yu,
  • Xinyu Li,
  • Jingbo Liang,
  • Mengru Wang,
  • Yu Zhang,
  • Xufeng Cui

摘要

Under the dual pressures of global ecological degradation and regional land resource constraints, effectively governing and optimizing production-living-ecological spaces (PLES) has become increasingly crucial, especially in ecologically vulnerable semi-arid regions. Taking the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration (GPUA)—a representative semi-arid region characterized by intensive land-use conflicts—as a case, this study integrates eco-environmental value (EV) and a Conflict Risk Index (CRI) to dynamically construct a Spatial Conflict Composite Index (SCCI). This approach reframes PLES conflicts as an eco-cost-weighted risk, thereby moving beyond conventional indices that focus solely on conflict intensity or static suitability. EV is incorporated into multi-scenario simulations of spatial conflicts to compare the ecological-cost risks associated with different development pathways and to identify conflict-prone areas characterized by high ecological stakes. Key findings include: (1) PLES presents a distribution pattern in which ecological spaces surround production and living spaces. (2) There is a decreasing trend in the number of PLES conflict zones, and the spatial distribution is gradually shifting from dispersion to clustering around regional central cities. (3) The predictions under different scenarios in the 2020–2035 period show that the farmland preservation scenario has a relatively lower number of PLES conflict areas and the lowest conflict intensity compared to other scenarios. (4) Based on the dynamic characteristics of spatial conflicts under this scenario, five distinct functional zones are delineated, and differentiated spatial governance strategies and targeted policy optimization recommendations are proposed, specifically addressing the eco-environmental vulnerabilities and land-use conflicts characteristic of semi-arid regions. These strategies provide targeted policy guidance for reconciling production, living, and ecological functions, facilitating coordinated and sustainable regional development in semi-arid areas.