A fuzzy synthetic evaluation of critical climate risk factors in resilient buildings: evidence from Ghana
摘要
Climate change impacts have intensified globally, yet empirical evidence on climate risks affecting resilient building performance in Ghana remains limited. This study identifies and evaluates climate risks in Ghana's building sector using fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) to establish a quantitative risk hierarchy for building-level decision-making. Primary data were collected through expert surveys and analyzed using descriptive statistics and FSE methodology, selected for its capacity to handle subjective assessments in contexts where historical climate data for buildings are scarce. The analysis revealed three primary risk categories with distinct criticality levels: Urban Thermal and Extreme Weather Risks (criticality index 4.15), Environmental and Atmospheric Stressors (4.07), and Secondary Climate Impact Risks (3.72). Urban Thermal and Extreme Weather Risks emerged as most critical, driven by urban heat island effects, extreme temperature fluctuations, and intensified storm events that directly compromise building envelope integrity and indoor thermal comfort. Environmental and Atmospheric Stressors including air quality deterioration, humidity extremes, and solar radiation intensification ranked second, affecting material durability and occupant health. Secondary Climate Impact Risks, while lower in direct severity, demonstrated substantial compounding effects through water scarcity, ecosystem degradation, and infrastructure interdependencies that amplify building system vulnerabilities. The findings provide construction stakeholders with an evidence-based risk hierarchy for prioritizing climate adaptation investments in tropical developing contexts. Practitioners can use these insights to devise targeted mitigation strategies aligned with Ghana's NDCs, SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action), while the FSE framework offers a replicable methodology for similar assessments across West African building sectors.