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<p>Advancing the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions is essential for promoting sustainable agricultural development and constitutes a critical step toward realizing the carbon peak target. To explore the pathways for agricultural carbon emissions in China’s major grain-producing regions (MGPRs), this study identified the spatio-temporal patterns of the agricultural carbon emissions in MGPRs from 2000 to 2021, explored the key influencing factors and their underlying mechanisms, and projected the future agricultural carbon emissions under the three different scenarios. The findings revealed that: (1) The agricultural carbon emissions in MGPRs demonstrated a fluctuating decline from 2000 to 2021. Among them, livestock breeding was the largest contributor to carbon emissions, whereas emissions from crop cultivation continued to increase. (2) Regarding the spatial distribution, the agricultural carbon emissions exhibited a distinct spatial pattern, characterized by higher levels in the southern areas and lower levels in the northern regions. Provinces such as Hunan, Sichuan and Henan experienced relatively high emissions, while Jilin and Liaoning had the lowest emission levels. (3) The size of the agricultural workforce, the total volume of agricultural water use, the structure of the agricultural sector, and the degree of agricultural mechanization were critical factors influencing the agricultural carbon emissions. These factors exhibited a significant threshold effect and a nonlinear relationship with carbon emissions. (4) Under the baseline and high-emission scenarios, agricultural carbon emissions in MGPRs are not expected to meet the carbon peak target by 2030. In contrast, under the green and low-carbon scenario, these regions can achieve the carbon peak target ahead of schedule. Based on the aforementioned findings, this paper proposed a region-specific emission reduction strategy for agricultural carbon emissions, aiming to offer data support and policy guidance to facilitate the transition toward green and low-carbon agriculture.</p>

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Research on agricultural carbon emissions in China’s major grain-producing regions: assessment, influencing factors, and pathways for emission reduction

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月19日

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  • Shulin Chen,
  • Qiuyu Lou

摘要

Advancing the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions is essential for promoting sustainable agricultural development and constitutes a critical step toward realizing the carbon peak target. To explore the pathways for agricultural carbon emissions in China’s major grain-producing regions (MGPRs), this study identified the spatio-temporal patterns of the agricultural carbon emissions in MGPRs from 2000 to 2021, explored the key influencing factors and their underlying mechanisms, and projected the future agricultural carbon emissions under the three different scenarios. The findings revealed that: (1) The agricultural carbon emissions in MGPRs demonstrated a fluctuating decline from 2000 to 2021. Among them, livestock breeding was the largest contributor to carbon emissions, whereas emissions from crop cultivation continued to increase. (2) Regarding the spatial distribution, the agricultural carbon emissions exhibited a distinct spatial pattern, characterized by higher levels in the southern areas and lower levels in the northern regions. Provinces such as Hunan, Sichuan and Henan experienced relatively high emissions, while Jilin and Liaoning had the lowest emission levels. (3) The size of the agricultural workforce, the total volume of agricultural water use, the structure of the agricultural sector, and the degree of agricultural mechanization were critical factors influencing the agricultural carbon emissions. These factors exhibited a significant threshold effect and a nonlinear relationship with carbon emissions. (4) Under the baseline and high-emission scenarios, agricultural carbon emissions in MGPRs are not expected to meet the carbon peak target by 2030. In contrast, under the green and low-carbon scenario, these regions can achieve the carbon peak target ahead of schedule. Based on the aforementioned findings, this paper proposed a region-specific emission reduction strategy for agricultural carbon emissions, aiming to offer data support and policy guidance to facilitate the transition toward green and low-carbon agriculture.