<p>The deep integration of local agriculture, ecology, and tourism has emerged as a critical pathway to overcome the multifaceted challenges faced by regions. The study proposes a system of agriculture-ecology-tourism (AET) industry integration, with 31 provinces (autonomous regions) in mainland China constituting the research unit from 2011 to 2023 based on symbiosis theory. The study integrates several methodologies, including the entropy-Delphi method, the coupled coordination model, the obstacle degree diagnosis, and the GM(1,1) prediction method. The findings indicate that the AET system manifests the hierarchical inter-constructive characteristics of a “symbiotic unit (resource elements)-symbiotic mode (interface function)-symbiotic environment (environmental field).” The level of coupling coordination exhibited a transition from borderline dissonance to primary coordination, undergoing a three-stage process: initiation, acceleration, and deepening and enhancement. The spatial pattern is summarized by efficient synergy in the coastal area, transitional enhancement in the central area, and gradient breakthrough in the western area. The development of the AET system exhibits a substantial agglomeration effect. The coexistence of high-high and low-low agglomeration areas constitutes a multivariate pattern of interwoven dependence and heterogeneity. The symbiotic behavior pattern includes reciprocal symbiosis and parasitism. The symbiotic organization pattern undergoes a degradation process, transitioning from continuous symbiosis to intermittent symbiosis. The key bottlenecks are tourism environmental support (18.605%) and agricultural resource mismatch (12.482%). The GM correction model prediction indicates that the AET system will achieve Intermediate coordination (0.710) in 2033. In light of the findings of this research, a series of differentiation policy recommendations are hereby proposed.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>