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<p>Market-based carbon pricing is central to global emissions reduction, yet its effectiveness in hard-to-abate sectors like coal-fired power generation remains contested. China’s staggered provincial pilot rollout of the Carbon Emissions Trading System (CETS) from 2013 to 2017 offers a unique quasi-experiment to assess whether and how carbon pricing enhances Total Factor Power Generation Efficiency (TFPGE), a key driver of sectoral emissions intensity. We develop a theoretical framework linking CETS to TFPGE via two channels: (1) institutional pressure increasing provincial environmental resource commitment (ERC) and enforcement, and (2) incentives for clean combustion technology innovation (CCTI). Exploiting staggered adoption, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences estimator with Sun and Abraham (<CitationRef CitationID="CR53">2021</CitationRef>) adjustments for heterogeneous timing and anticipation effects. Using provincial panel data (2008–2022), we estimate average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) and cohort-specific impacts on coal-fired power TFPGE, measured via Super-efficiency Slacks-Based Measure DEA and the Malmquist-Luenberger Index. Results indicate CETS raises TFPGE by 0.092 standard deviations on average (roughly 2–2.5% efficiency gain), increasing to 0.149 with anticipation adjustment. Effects vary by timing: early pilots (2013: 0.115 SD; 2014: 0.081 SD) yield strong gains, while the 2017 cohort shows near-zero, insignificant effects (-0.014 SD). Mechanisms attribute ~ 25% of gains to ERC, with CCTI contributing 1–2% and the rest driven mainly by technological change (TC = 1.028 pilots vs. 0.991 non-pilots) rather than efficiency catch-up. Stronger impacts emerge in Central China (0.132 SD), high thermal-power provinces (0.135 SD), less industrialized regions (0.214 SD), and lower-GDP provinces (0.098 SD). These findings reveal first-mover advantages in carbon pricing for coal-heavy systems alongside limitations from delayed implementation, underscoring regionally tailored designs for China’s national ETS and emerging-economy transitions.</p>

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Pricing for a low-carbon energy future: how China’s carbon emissions trading system drives eco-efficient power generation in China’s coal-fired power industry

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月28日

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  • Shafiq Tumusiime,
  • Yongjun Li

摘要

Market-based carbon pricing is central to global emissions reduction, yet its effectiveness in hard-to-abate sectors like coal-fired power generation remains contested. China’s staggered provincial pilot rollout of the Carbon Emissions Trading System (CETS) from 2013 to 2017 offers a unique quasi-experiment to assess whether and how carbon pricing enhances Total Factor Power Generation Efficiency (TFPGE), a key driver of sectoral emissions intensity. We develop a theoretical framework linking CETS to TFPGE via two channels: (1) institutional pressure increasing provincial environmental resource commitment (ERC) and enforcement, and (2) incentives for clean combustion technology innovation (CCTI). Exploiting staggered adoption, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences estimator with Sun and Abraham (2021) adjustments for heterogeneous timing and anticipation effects. Using provincial panel data (2008–2022), we estimate average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) and cohort-specific impacts on coal-fired power TFPGE, measured via Super-efficiency Slacks-Based Measure DEA and the Malmquist-Luenberger Index. Results indicate CETS raises TFPGE by 0.092 standard deviations on average (roughly 2–2.5% efficiency gain), increasing to 0.149 with anticipation adjustment. Effects vary by timing: early pilots (2013: 0.115 SD; 2014: 0.081 SD) yield strong gains, while the 2017 cohort shows near-zero, insignificant effects (-0.014 SD). Mechanisms attribute ~ 25% of gains to ERC, with CCTI contributing 1–2% and the rest driven mainly by technological change (TC = 1.028 pilots vs. 0.991 non-pilots) rather than efficiency catch-up. Stronger impacts emerge in Central China (0.132 SD), high thermal-power provinces (0.135 SD), less industrialized regions (0.214 SD), and lower-GDP provinces (0.098 SD). These findings reveal first-mover advantages in carbon pricing for coal-heavy systems alongside limitations from delayed implementation, underscoring regionally tailored designs for China’s national ETS and emerging-economy transitions.