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<p>Enhancing carbon sequestration and reducing emissions from land-use conversion are expected to be key ways to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, despite efforts to alleviate them, difficulties persist in reversing ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC) and LULCC-derived emissions, as anthropogenic carbon emissions exacerbate and changes in ecosystem attributes create global challenges. This study analyzed effects of land-use transitions on net carbon fluxes in a rapidly urbanizing and agriculturally intensification region between 2005 and 2020 through a spatiotemporal attribution design. LULCC classification datasets, the process-based terrestrial carbon exchange model, the land-use carbon emission assessment model (LUCEAM), and the carbon flux coefficients for land-use types were employed. The study found that each land-use type transformed from one form to another over the study period with varying degrees, resulting in a total of 148,061&#xa0;km² (19.0%) of land-use undergoing transformation. The predominant land-use transitions were from cropland to impervious (32199&#xa0;km²), cropland to forest (6504&#xa0;km²), and grassland to forest (5720&#xa0;km²). The land-use transitions resulted in an overall loss and gain of carbon (gC m<sup>− 2</sup>) 108 and 98, respectively. Of this carbon loss, 25% was due to the expansion of impervious surfaces. Carbon emissions from croplands declined by 1.4 TgC year<sup>− 1</sup>. Conversion of forests, shrubland, grassland, barren, and water land to croplands emitted totals of 0.23, 0.0004, 0.2, 0.003, and 0.17 TgC year<sup>− 1</sup>, respectively. Land-use transition has resulted in substantial carbon emissions in the area. Accordingly, sustainable land management is recommended to enhance carbon uptake and resilience.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Effects of land-use transitions on net carbon fluxes in a rapidly urbanizing and agriculturally intensification region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月20日

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  • Melese Genete Muluneh,
  • Yuanxun Zhang,
  • Philip K. Hopke,
  • Lijing Wang,
  • Ousseynou Traware

摘要

Enhancing carbon sequestration and reducing emissions from land-use conversion are expected to be key ways to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, despite efforts to alleviate them, difficulties persist in reversing ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC) and LULCC-derived emissions, as anthropogenic carbon emissions exacerbate and changes in ecosystem attributes create global challenges. This study analyzed effects of land-use transitions on net carbon fluxes in a rapidly urbanizing and agriculturally intensification region between 2005 and 2020 through a spatiotemporal attribution design. LULCC classification datasets, the process-based terrestrial carbon exchange model, the land-use carbon emission assessment model (LUCEAM), and the carbon flux coefficients for land-use types were employed. The study found that each land-use type transformed from one form to another over the study period with varying degrees, resulting in a total of 148,061 km² (19.0%) of land-use undergoing transformation. The predominant land-use transitions were from cropland to impervious (32199 km²), cropland to forest (6504 km²), and grassland to forest (5720 km²). The land-use transitions resulted in an overall loss and gain of carbon (gC m− 2) 108 and 98, respectively. Of this carbon loss, 25% was due to the expansion of impervious surfaces. Carbon emissions from croplands declined by 1.4 TgC year− 1. Conversion of forests, shrubland, grassland, barren, and water land to croplands emitted totals of 0.23, 0.0004, 0.2, 0.003, and 0.17 TgC year− 1, respectively. Land-use transition has resulted in substantial carbon emissions in the area. Accordingly, sustainable land management is recommended to enhance carbon uptake and resilience.

Graphical abstract