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<p>In an era of unprecedented momentum toward clean energy, trade uncertainty has become a significant barrier to advancing green hydrogen innovation, undermining the financial stability needed to sustain research and development in this promising sector. This study investigates how trade uncertainty asymmetrically affects green hydrogen technology budgets in 10 leading nations with the highest R&amp;D investments in this field, including the USA, China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, France, the Netherlands, the UK, Canada, and Australia. Using advanced econometric techniques, including Quantile Regression and the Quantile-on-Quantile tool, the analysis examines how varying levels of trade uncertainty influence green hydrogen technology budgets across distinct economic circumstances. The findings exhibit a significant inverse relationship between trade uncertainty and green hydrogen technology budgets, with this negative impact intensifying in countries with higher levels of trade uncertainty. The findings also highlight the country-specific sensitivities and structural dynamics that shape this relationship. These insights underscore the need for policymakers to adopt context-specific strategies to buffer the green hydrogen sector against the destabilizing effects of global trade uncertainty. Recommendations include aligning national policies with Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDGs 7 (affordable and clean energy), 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), and 13 (climate action), to safeguard the resilience of the green hydrogen transition and promote sustainable growth.</p>

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Green hydrogen at the edge of trade uncertainty: A cross-country quantile study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月12日

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  • Wang Lin,
  • Gong Qiyan,
  • Shoukat Ali,
  • Sajid Ali,
  • Raima Nazar

摘要

In an era of unprecedented momentum toward clean energy, trade uncertainty has become a significant barrier to advancing green hydrogen innovation, undermining the financial stability needed to sustain research and development in this promising sector. This study investigates how trade uncertainty asymmetrically affects green hydrogen technology budgets in 10 leading nations with the highest R&D investments in this field, including the USA, China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, France, the Netherlands, the UK, Canada, and Australia. Using advanced econometric techniques, including Quantile Regression and the Quantile-on-Quantile tool, the analysis examines how varying levels of trade uncertainty influence green hydrogen technology budgets across distinct economic circumstances. The findings exhibit a significant inverse relationship between trade uncertainty and green hydrogen technology budgets, with this negative impact intensifying in countries with higher levels of trade uncertainty. The findings also highlight the country-specific sensitivities and structural dynamics that shape this relationship. These insights underscore the need for policymakers to adopt context-specific strategies to buffer the green hydrogen sector against the destabilizing effects of global trade uncertainty. Recommendations include aligning national policies with Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDGs 7 (affordable and clean energy), 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), and 13 (climate action), to safeguard the resilience of the green hydrogen transition and promote sustainable growth.