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<p>Water, energy, and food (W-E–F) are essential for sustainable development. This study analyzes the W-E–F nexus in the agricultural regions of Henan Province, China, using data from 17 cities (2002–2022). To evaluate spatiotemporal dynamics, we built an evaluation index system and used Markov chains, kernel density estimation(KDE), and a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The composite W-E–F coordination rose from 0.431 in 2002 to 0.871 in 2022, demonstrating a distinct rising trend in CCD values. Regionally, Southern and Northern Henan outperformed Central Henan, which sustained a moderate coordination level with a northeastward spatial shift. Forecasts suggest all cities will maintain or enhance their coordination status within two years. To address regional disparities, we recommend promoting water-saving irrigation, enhancing conservation, and optimizing water-use structures. These targeted strategies improve resource-use efficiency and directly contribute to regional sustainability.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Spatiotemporal analysis of water-energy-food synergy in Henan agriculture based on coupling coordination theory

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月28日

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  • Yan Shi,
  • Lei Lu,
  • Wenjing Li,
  • Yunjiao Fan,
  • Chaoyang Yue

摘要

Water, energy, and food (W-E–F) are essential for sustainable development. This study analyzes the W-E–F nexus in the agricultural regions of Henan Province, China, using data from 17 cities (2002–2022). To evaluate spatiotemporal dynamics, we built an evaluation index system and used Markov chains, kernel density estimation(KDE), and a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The composite W-E–F coordination rose from 0.431 in 2002 to 0.871 in 2022, demonstrating a distinct rising trend in CCD values. Regionally, Southern and Northern Henan outperformed Central Henan, which sustained a moderate coordination level with a northeastward spatial shift. Forecasts suggest all cities will maintain or enhance their coordination status within two years. To address regional disparities, we recommend promoting water-saving irrigation, enhancing conservation, and optimizing water-use structures. These targeted strategies improve resource-use efficiency and directly contribute to regional sustainability.

Graphical abstract