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<p>Forest carbon offset projects (FCOPs), which mitigate climate change through the sustainable use of natural resources, are regarded as a key strategy to simultaneously promote economic and ecological sustainability. However, existing research remains divided on whether these projects yield substantial co-benefits for ecological conservation, and there is a lack of quantitative evidence. Using balanced panel data from 128 counties in Sichuan Province, China, spanning 2000–2020, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (SDID) model to quantify the ecological co-benefits of FCOPs. The results show that project implementation led to a 7.6% decline in forest ecosystem service value (FESV), with significant reductions emerging from the fifth year onward. The negative impact is more pronounced in areas with higher urbanization rates, greater agricultural land-use pressure, and more developed livestock sectors. FCOPs affect FESV primarily by altering ecosystem structure and function, thereby exerting indirect ecological effects. Spatial analysis further identifies negative spillover effects within 0–80&#xa0;km of project sites, while ecological certification labels do not significantly enhance co-benefits. These findings highlight the need to balance project development with land-use competition and to strengthen long-term ecological monitoring to ensure that FCOPs deliver genuine climate and biodiversity benefits.</p>

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Trade-off or synergy: did nature-based climate solutions bring co-benefits for ecological conservation? — Evidence from China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Qi Wang,
  • Yuan Hu,
  • Weizhong Zeng,
  • Rui Chen

摘要

Forest carbon offset projects (FCOPs), which mitigate climate change through the sustainable use of natural resources, are regarded as a key strategy to simultaneously promote economic and ecological sustainability. However, existing research remains divided on whether these projects yield substantial co-benefits for ecological conservation, and there is a lack of quantitative evidence. Using balanced panel data from 128 counties in Sichuan Province, China, spanning 2000–2020, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (SDID) model to quantify the ecological co-benefits of FCOPs. The results show that project implementation led to a 7.6% decline in forest ecosystem service value (FESV), with significant reductions emerging from the fifth year onward. The negative impact is more pronounced in areas with higher urbanization rates, greater agricultural land-use pressure, and more developed livestock sectors. FCOPs affect FESV primarily by altering ecosystem structure and function, thereby exerting indirect ecological effects. Spatial analysis further identifies negative spillover effects within 0–80 km of project sites, while ecological certification labels do not significantly enhance co-benefits. These findings highlight the need to balance project development with land-use competition and to strengthen long-term ecological monitoring to ensure that FCOPs deliver genuine climate and biodiversity benefits.