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<p>Climate change exerts profound impacts on human survival and development, while simultaneously intensifying challenges faced by enterprises through increased frequency of extreme weather events. This study employs panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies spanning 2009–2021 to construct a climate shock indicator centered on natural disaster impacts. Utilizing fixed-effects models and instrumental variable methods, it identifies the causal effects of climate change on firm-level Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Findings reveal that climate change significantly reduces firm-level TFP, a conclusion robust across multiple dimensions. Mechanism analysis indicates that climate change undermines TFP through three pathways: exacerbating financing constraints, suppressing technological innovation investment, and triggering skilled labor outflow. Heterogeneity analysis shows that negative impacts are particularly pronounced in mature firms, while enterprises located in regions with higher marketisation or stricter environmental regulations demonstrate greater resilience. Finally, threshold regression results reveal that beyond a certain resilience threshold, the marginal negative effect of climate shocks on TFP significantly diminishes or ceases to be statistically significant. This study not only provides new evidence on the microeconomic consequences of climate change but also offers clear empirical support and policy implications for formulating differentiated climate adaptation policies, enhancing corporate climate resilience, and promoting high-quality development.</p>

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Climate change and firm-level total factor productivity: evidence from China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月16日

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  • Rongwei Zhang,
  • Shanyong Wang,
  • Shuainan Zhang,
  • Yancheng Lai,
  • Haidong Li

摘要

Climate change exerts profound impacts on human survival and development, while simultaneously intensifying challenges faced by enterprises through increased frequency of extreme weather events. This study employs panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies spanning 2009–2021 to construct a climate shock indicator centered on natural disaster impacts. Utilizing fixed-effects models and instrumental variable methods, it identifies the causal effects of climate change on firm-level Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Findings reveal that climate change significantly reduces firm-level TFP, a conclusion robust across multiple dimensions. Mechanism analysis indicates that climate change undermines TFP through three pathways: exacerbating financing constraints, suppressing technological innovation investment, and triggering skilled labor outflow. Heterogeneity analysis shows that negative impacts are particularly pronounced in mature firms, while enterprises located in regions with higher marketisation or stricter environmental regulations demonstrate greater resilience. Finally, threshold regression results reveal that beyond a certain resilience threshold, the marginal negative effect of climate shocks on TFP significantly diminishes or ceases to be statistically significant. This study not only provides new evidence on the microeconomic consequences of climate change but also offers clear empirical support and policy implications for formulating differentiated climate adaptation policies, enhancing corporate climate resilience, and promoting high-quality development.