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<p>Achieving China’s “Dual Carbon” goals necessitates updating its power dispatch system, whose current administrative framework gives little weight to environmental externalities. This study quantifies the impact of low-carbon dispatch on environmental efficiency to inform this transition. Environmental efficiency across 30 Chinese provinces over 2013–2023 is evaluated using a super-efficiency Slack-Based Model (SBM) with undesirable outputs and Malmquist index decomposition. A two-stage robust dispatch model incorporating inter-provincial carbon cooperation under wind power uncertainty is also developed. Results reveal marked spatial disparities: northwestern provinces achieve high efficiency through renewable integration, while economically advanced regions underperform despite greater resource inputs. Nationally, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) fell to 0.761 in 2020–2021, driven by declining technological change (TC &lt; 0.8). At the micro level, low-carbon dispatch reduces generation costs by 24.94% and carbon emissions by 1.06%. In Jiangsu, it raises environmental efficiency to 1.0286 and TFP to 1.0393, both above unity, indicating convergence toward the production frontier. These gains stem from integrating renewable uncertainty management and carbon cooperation into scheduling. The findings confirm that shifting to low-carbon dispatch is both necessary and effective. Policymakers are encouraged to adopt robust, cooperation-based frameworks to accelerate decarbonization in emerging economies’ power systems.</p>

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Exploring the necessity of low-carbon transition of power dispatching: a perspective of environmental efficiency assessment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月16日

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  • Jingliang Jin,
  • Linlin Li,
  • Wei Ben,
  • Chenxi Li,
  • Tingting Liu,
  • Jizhe Zheng

摘要

Achieving China’s “Dual Carbon” goals necessitates updating its power dispatch system, whose current administrative framework gives little weight to environmental externalities. This study quantifies the impact of low-carbon dispatch on environmental efficiency to inform this transition. Environmental efficiency across 30 Chinese provinces over 2013–2023 is evaluated using a super-efficiency Slack-Based Model (SBM) with undesirable outputs and Malmquist index decomposition. A two-stage robust dispatch model incorporating inter-provincial carbon cooperation under wind power uncertainty is also developed. Results reveal marked spatial disparities: northwestern provinces achieve high efficiency through renewable integration, while economically advanced regions underperform despite greater resource inputs. Nationally, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) fell to 0.761 in 2020–2021, driven by declining technological change (TC < 0.8). At the micro level, low-carbon dispatch reduces generation costs by 24.94% and carbon emissions by 1.06%. In Jiangsu, it raises environmental efficiency to 1.0286 and TFP to 1.0393, both above unity, indicating convergence toward the production frontier. These gains stem from integrating renewable uncertainty management and carbon cooperation into scheduling. The findings confirm that shifting to low-carbon dispatch is both necessary and effective. Policymakers are encouraged to adopt robust, cooperation-based frameworks to accelerate decarbonization in emerging economies’ power systems.