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<p>The coupling coordination of water, economy, and ecology systems is essential for achieving regional sustainable development. Using the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) as a case study, this research develops an evaluation index system for the “water-economy-ecology” framework, examines the evolution of coupling coordination from 2011 to 2020, and refines the classification criteria for coordination levels. A prediction model for coupling and coordinated development in complex urban agglomerations is then constructed, incorporating five future scenarios: status quo continuation, resource exploration and conservation, economic growth, environmentally friendly, and comprehensive coordination. The model projects the trajectory of coupling coordination in the CPUA from 2026 to 2035. Results indicate that: (1) from 2011 to 2020, the CPUA’s “water-economy-ecology” system maintained a consistently high coupling degree (&gt; 0.98), while coordination steadily increased at an average annual growth rate of 0.90%, reflecting the coexistence of strong coupling and gradual coordination; (2) major projects and policies substantially improved initially underdeveloped areas, but most cities remained at a medium coordination level, with subsystem imbalances constituting a common bottleneck; and (3) ecological prioritization and system synergy are key pathways to enhancing coordination, with comprehensive coordination and environmentally friendly scenarios showing the fastest improvements, while the economic growth scenario exhibited relatively weaker effects. This study provides theoretical support and decision-making references for advancing the coordinated development of water management, economic growth, and ecological protection in the CPUA, thereby contributing to high-quality regional development.</p>

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Evaluation and prediction of the coupling coordination of the “water-economy-ecology” system in the central plains urban agglomeration

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月18日

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  • Jiageng Hu,
  • Peifang Wang,
  • Fuqiang Wang,
  • Peiheng Liu,
  • Subing Lü,
  • Cheng Lü,
  • Furong Yu

摘要

The coupling coordination of water, economy, and ecology systems is essential for achieving regional sustainable development. Using the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) as a case study, this research develops an evaluation index system for the “water-economy-ecology” framework, examines the evolution of coupling coordination from 2011 to 2020, and refines the classification criteria for coordination levels. A prediction model for coupling and coordinated development in complex urban agglomerations is then constructed, incorporating five future scenarios: status quo continuation, resource exploration and conservation, economic growth, environmentally friendly, and comprehensive coordination. The model projects the trajectory of coupling coordination in the CPUA from 2026 to 2035. Results indicate that: (1) from 2011 to 2020, the CPUA’s “water-economy-ecology” system maintained a consistently high coupling degree (> 0.98), while coordination steadily increased at an average annual growth rate of 0.90%, reflecting the coexistence of strong coupling and gradual coordination; (2) major projects and policies substantially improved initially underdeveloped areas, but most cities remained at a medium coordination level, with subsystem imbalances constituting a common bottleneck; and (3) ecological prioritization and system synergy are key pathways to enhancing coordination, with comprehensive coordination and environmentally friendly scenarios showing the fastest improvements, while the economic growth scenario exhibited relatively weaker effects. This study provides theoretical support and decision-making references for advancing the coordinated development of water management, economic growth, and ecological protection in the CPUA, thereby contributing to high-quality regional development.