Using sensitivity analysis to identify influencing factors and develop regional strategies for pastoral livelihood vulnerability
摘要
In the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, the livelihoods of rangeland users are increasingly exposed to environmental and human threats. This research aimed to assess Pastoral Livelihood Vulnerability in the Yazd-Ardakan Plain. This study identified factors affecting livelihood vulnerability by integrating the Livelihood Vulnerability Index – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) framework – with the One-At-a-Time (OAT) sensitivity analysis method. Data were collected through 191 questionnaires, and the components were measured in terms of three main factors of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. The innovation of this research lies in combining the LVI-IPCC framework with the OAT sensitivity analysis method to more accurately assess livelihood vulnerability in arid and semi-arid regions; an approach that allows for the identification of the most effective components in changing the vulnerability index. The results showed that this region is at the “very high vulnerability” level, and that adaptive capacity played the largest role in changing LVI-IPCC, while exposure ranked second, and sensitivity had the least effect. The results of the component analysis showed that the main drivers of vulnerability are factors such as “limited livelihood diversity”, “dependence on rangeland resources”, and “natural and human hazards.” Accordingly, policy suggestions for reducing livelihood vulnerability include: increasing livelihood diversity, improving water storage infrastructure, reviewing land allocation, and reducing damage to industries and mines. These measures can enhance adaptive capacity and increase the resilience of local communities to environmental hazards. This approach can be used as a generalizable framework for similar arid and semi-arid rangeland areas.