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<p>Urban residential areas significantly contribute to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, conventional projection models rely heavily on economic indicators and lack spatial detail, limiting their relevance for local policy planning. This study develops a dynamic bottom-up model that integrates geographic information systems (GIS), material flow analysis (MFA), and life cycle assessment (LCA) to project residential building GHG emissions. The framework includes the Urban residential building floor space model (URBFSM) for estimating stock and material flows, and the urban residential building energy model (URBEM) for simulating operational energy use based on 15 archetype buildings defined by type and construction period. Applied to Wellington City, New Zealand, the model covers 78 suburbs and projects emissions from 2023 to 2050 under five policy scenarios. The model provides outputs at the suburb level and can also resolve emissions at the block level with a spatial resolution of 0.3 km × 0.3 km. Results show that a combined strategy could reduce total GHG emissions by 42.36% compared to business-as-usual, including an 8.47% reduction from improved concrete standards, 7.28% from enhanced building performance, and 29.84% from electricity grid decarbonization. It is intended to support policymakers and urban planners in designing and implementing targeted GHG reduction strategies.</p>

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Development of a dynamic bottom-up model for city-scale residential building stock to estimate greenhouse gas emissions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月30日

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  • Zidong Yu,
  • Junkang Wu,
  • Zhi Sun

摘要

Urban residential areas significantly contribute to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, conventional projection models rely heavily on economic indicators and lack spatial detail, limiting their relevance for local policy planning. This study develops a dynamic bottom-up model that integrates geographic information systems (GIS), material flow analysis (MFA), and life cycle assessment (LCA) to project residential building GHG emissions. The framework includes the Urban residential building floor space model (URBFSM) for estimating stock and material flows, and the urban residential building energy model (URBEM) for simulating operational energy use based on 15 archetype buildings defined by type and construction period. Applied to Wellington City, New Zealand, the model covers 78 suburbs and projects emissions from 2023 to 2050 under five policy scenarios. The model provides outputs at the suburb level and can also resolve emissions at the block level with a spatial resolution of 0.3 km × 0.3 km. Results show that a combined strategy could reduce total GHG emissions by 42.36% compared to business-as-usual, including an 8.47% reduction from improved concrete standards, 7.28% from enhanced building performance, and 29.84% from electricity grid decarbonization. It is intended to support policymakers and urban planners in designing and implementing targeted GHG reduction strategies.