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<p>The equitable and rational allocation of carbon emission quotas among cities constitutes a pivotal measure for China to achieve its dual carbon goals and mitigate climate change at its source. This study first constructed a total carbon emission quota accounting model to calculate the aggregate carbon emissions of cities under the dual carbon objectives. Subsequently, it sequentially developed carbon emission allocation models for three scenarios—equity-focused, efficiency-focused, and a balanced approach—to assess carbon quotas for China’s 284 cities under each scenario. Finally, an SBM dual model was developed to calculate the marginal abatement costs of carbon emissions for cities under different allocation scenarios, thereby determining the optimal allocation scheme. The main findings are as follows. (1) Analysis under the equity scenario revealed significant disparities in carbon allocation outcomes under a single equity principle, yielding potentially extreme distributions. For instance, Shanghai’s carbon allocation under the three equity principles stood at 119,861,000 tons, 465,310,000 tons and 170,240,000 tons, respectively. (2) Analysis under the efficiency scenario revealed that optimal carbon allocations were achieved through four iterations. Cities with high initial efficiency secured greater emission allowances in later iterations, gaining an additional 2860.29&#xa0;million tonnes of allowances, accounting for 43.2% of the total increase. (3) Analysis of carbon quotas under the equity-efficiency scenario revealed that 91 cities faced carbon quota deficits, while 193 cities held carbon emission surpluses. (4) Analysis of marginal carbon abatement costs revealed significant variation in these costs across cities under different scenarios. The marginal carbon abatement cost in the equity-efficiency scenario stood at RMB 3,177 per tonne, representing the optimal pathway to achieve the dual carbon goals at the lowest marginal abatement cost. This study focuses on the urban micro-level, establishing a three-dimensional evaluation framework integrating fairness, efficiency, and abatement costs. By coupling a multi-criteria allocation model with the ZSG-DEA dynamic iterative model, it overcomes the limitations of traditional static quota allocation to determine optimal urban carbon quota distribution schemes. This holds significant theoretical value for advancing the optimization of China’s city-level carbon neutrality pathways.</p>

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Carbon quota analysis of 284 cities in China under the carbon neutral goal based on the SBM dyadic modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月20日

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  • Yujie Wang,
  • Ruonan Zhang,
  • Kefei Zhang,
  • Hong Chen,
  • Ruyin Long

摘要

The equitable and rational allocation of carbon emission quotas among cities constitutes a pivotal measure for China to achieve its dual carbon goals and mitigate climate change at its source. This study first constructed a total carbon emission quota accounting model to calculate the aggregate carbon emissions of cities under the dual carbon objectives. Subsequently, it sequentially developed carbon emission allocation models for three scenarios—equity-focused, efficiency-focused, and a balanced approach—to assess carbon quotas for China’s 284 cities under each scenario. Finally, an SBM dual model was developed to calculate the marginal abatement costs of carbon emissions for cities under different allocation scenarios, thereby determining the optimal allocation scheme. The main findings are as follows. (1) Analysis under the equity scenario revealed significant disparities in carbon allocation outcomes under a single equity principle, yielding potentially extreme distributions. For instance, Shanghai’s carbon allocation under the three equity principles stood at 119,861,000 tons, 465,310,000 tons and 170,240,000 tons, respectively. (2) Analysis under the efficiency scenario revealed that optimal carbon allocations were achieved through four iterations. Cities with high initial efficiency secured greater emission allowances in later iterations, gaining an additional 2860.29 million tonnes of allowances, accounting for 43.2% of the total increase. (3) Analysis of carbon quotas under the equity-efficiency scenario revealed that 91 cities faced carbon quota deficits, while 193 cities held carbon emission surpluses. (4) Analysis of marginal carbon abatement costs revealed significant variation in these costs across cities under different scenarios. The marginal carbon abatement cost in the equity-efficiency scenario stood at RMB 3,177 per tonne, representing the optimal pathway to achieve the dual carbon goals at the lowest marginal abatement cost. This study focuses on the urban micro-level, establishing a three-dimensional evaluation framework integrating fairness, efficiency, and abatement costs. By coupling a multi-criteria allocation model with the ZSG-DEA dynamic iterative model, it overcomes the limitations of traditional static quota allocation to determine optimal urban carbon quota distribution schemes. This holds significant theoretical value for advancing the optimization of China’s city-level carbon neutrality pathways.