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<p>The potential of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) reduction affects agricultural production practices and environmental sustainability, particularly in grain-producing regions. However, the factors that impact ACE reduction are comprehensive. To evaluate the potential and drivers of ACE reduction in Shandong Province, we conducted the analyze combining the LMDI decomposition model and Geodetector. Our findings demonstrated that ACE have exhibited a general fluctuating decreasing tendency in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2020. Strong decoupling replaced weak decoupling, indicating that ACE decrease as the economy grows during 2001–2020. Furthermore, agricultural production efficiency was the major factor in decreasing ACE. The interaction of regional industrial structure and urbanization level had the greatest impact in the study period. We predicted that ACE in Shandong Province will continue to decline in 2021–2035. Strengthening oxygen release and carbon sequestration from agriculture in the interior plains and raising people’s awareness of ecological protection can help achieve ACE reduction. The findings can serve as a fresh perspective for ACE reduction strategies for green development in grain-producing regions.</p>

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Carbon emissions reduction potential and reduction strategy in typical grain-producing regions in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月26日

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  • Cui-fang Zhang,
  • Zi-xuan Xie,
  • Qian Wang,
  • Jin Zhang,
  • Tian-jiao Zhang,
  • Qi-peng Zhang

摘要

The potential of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) reduction affects agricultural production practices and environmental sustainability, particularly in grain-producing regions. However, the factors that impact ACE reduction are comprehensive. To evaluate the potential and drivers of ACE reduction in Shandong Province, we conducted the analyze combining the LMDI decomposition model and Geodetector. Our findings demonstrated that ACE have exhibited a general fluctuating decreasing tendency in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2020. Strong decoupling replaced weak decoupling, indicating that ACE decrease as the economy grows during 2001–2020. Furthermore, agricultural production efficiency was the major factor in decreasing ACE. The interaction of regional industrial structure and urbanization level had the greatest impact in the study period. We predicted that ACE in Shandong Province will continue to decline in 2021–2035. Strengthening oxygen release and carbon sequestration from agriculture in the interior plains and raising people’s awareness of ecological protection can help achieve ACE reduction. The findings can serve as a fresh perspective for ACE reduction strategies for green development in grain-producing regions.