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<p>Sustainable development has accelerated the transition to electric and lightweight vehicles, increasing global aluminium demand. This trend heightens supply risks due to constrained primary aluminium production. Recycling aluminium from end-of-life (EoL) vehicles is critical to alleviating these supply constraints and supporting sustainable development in China’s automotive sector. This study employs a grey forecasting model to project electric passenger vehicle (EPV) sales and estimates aluminium demand and EoL EPV recycling potential in China from 2024 to 2035, considering three service lifespan scenarios (8, 10, and 12&#xa0;years) and two lightweighting scenarios (Slight and Deep). By 2035, under the Deep Lightweighting scenario with an 8-year lifespan, EoL EPVs could yield 3.75 million tons of recycled aluminium, offering substantial resource recovery and economic benefits. As a secondary supply source, recycled aluminium significantly supplements primary production, reducing supply constraints. Extending EPV service life through technological improvements and promoting recycled aluminium use among manufacturers are key strategies for advancing sustainable lightweighting and fostering a circular economy.</p>

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Forecasting the sustainable demand and recycling potential of aluminium in electric passenger vehicles under the lightweighting trend in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月13日

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  • Yang Li,
  • Ziying Fang,
  • Yanhui Liu,
  • Jing Wang,
  • Hanxiao Yang

摘要

Sustainable development has accelerated the transition to electric and lightweight vehicles, increasing global aluminium demand. This trend heightens supply risks due to constrained primary aluminium production. Recycling aluminium from end-of-life (EoL) vehicles is critical to alleviating these supply constraints and supporting sustainable development in China’s automotive sector. This study employs a grey forecasting model to project electric passenger vehicle (EPV) sales and estimates aluminium demand and EoL EPV recycling potential in China from 2024 to 2035, considering three service lifespan scenarios (8, 10, and 12 years) and two lightweighting scenarios (Slight and Deep). By 2035, under the Deep Lightweighting scenario with an 8-year lifespan, EoL EPVs could yield 3.75 million tons of recycled aluminium, offering substantial resource recovery and economic benefits. As a secondary supply source, recycled aluminium significantly supplements primary production, reducing supply constraints. Extending EPV service life through technological improvements and promoting recycled aluminium use among manufacturers are key strategies for advancing sustainable lightweighting and fostering a circular economy.