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<p>Economy development and resource exploration always contradict each other in sustainable development, especially in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) which faces the specific issues of water shortage, soil erosion, and imbalanced development. This study aims to explore the human-nature relationship of basin cities through the lens of water-land-economy coordination, with a particular focus on forecasting future trends. Existing research has largely underexplored the integration of water, land, and economy in forecasting future human-nature interactions, especially in the context of the Yellow River Basin. To address this gap, a water-land-economy (WLE) system was developed to assess and predict coordination in the YRB from 2011 to 2021. Coupling coordination degree (CCD), spatial autocorrelation, dagum gini coefficient, obstacle factor diagnosing, and random forest model were utilized to analyze the trend, spatial distribution characteristics, obstacle factors, and forecasting value. The results revealed that: (1) CCD of WLE in YRB performed at a medium level but showed an upward trend. (2) CCD results demonstrated spatial heterogeneity and increased from upstream to downstream. And the difference among the streams had become wider. (3) The main obstacle subsystem was the economy system, while the groundwater factor was the main barrier to the improvement of CCD. (4) The forecast reveals basin-wide improvements in CCD, highlighting the sustainable development scenario as the most effective approach. Relevant suggestions were provided to narrow the differences in streams and realize the coordination of economy and resource utilization in the YRB.</p>

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Promotion or restriction? assessment and forecasting of coupling coordination relationship of water-land-economy in yellow river Basin, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月4日

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  • Xin Xiang,
  • Yi Xiao,
  • Yongxiang Chen,
  • Hui Huang,
  • Qingshen Kong,
  • Huan Huang

摘要

Economy development and resource exploration always contradict each other in sustainable development, especially in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) which faces the specific issues of water shortage, soil erosion, and imbalanced development. This study aims to explore the human-nature relationship of basin cities through the lens of water-land-economy coordination, with a particular focus on forecasting future trends. Existing research has largely underexplored the integration of water, land, and economy in forecasting future human-nature interactions, especially in the context of the Yellow River Basin. To address this gap, a water-land-economy (WLE) system was developed to assess and predict coordination in the YRB from 2011 to 2021. Coupling coordination degree (CCD), spatial autocorrelation, dagum gini coefficient, obstacle factor diagnosing, and random forest model were utilized to analyze the trend, spatial distribution characteristics, obstacle factors, and forecasting value. The results revealed that: (1) CCD of WLE in YRB performed at a medium level but showed an upward trend. (2) CCD results demonstrated spatial heterogeneity and increased from upstream to downstream. And the difference among the streams had become wider. (3) The main obstacle subsystem was the economy system, while the groundwater factor was the main barrier to the improvement of CCD. (4) The forecast reveals basin-wide improvements in CCD, highlighting the sustainable development scenario as the most effective approach. Relevant suggestions were provided to narrow the differences in streams and realize the coordination of economy and resource utilization in the YRB.