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<p>China, the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter, announced during the 75th session of the UN General Assembly that it aims to reach its peak emissions by 2030. As the greenest province in China, Fujian’s carbon peaking trajectory holds significant demonstrative value for the nation and other provinces in achieving the “Dual Carbon” goals. We establish a carbon emission system dynamics (SD) model to predict the timing and value of carbon peaking in Fujian under various scenarios, and employ the Interlink Decision Making Index (IDMI) method to assess the feasibility of these scenarios. The results specify the following: (1) In the baseline scenario, which lacks policy constraints, Fujian faces significant challenges in achieving the carbon peaking target by 2030. (2) Eleven scenarios can reach the carbon peaking target, with peaking times concentrated between 2030 and 2033 and peaking values ranging from 30.932 to 31.900&#xa0;million tons. Among these, five scenarios successfully meet the carbon peaking and emission intensity targets by 2030. (3) Without specific decision preferences, scenario XV emerges as the optimal carbon peaking path. However, when prioritizing total carbon emissions or the output value of the tertiary industry, scenario XVI is the most favourable.</p>

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Can China’s greenest province achieve carbon peaking toward the “dual carbon” goals? Multi-scenario forecast and path selection in Fujian

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月18日

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  • Qingquan Jiang,
  • Huijuan Xi,
  • Jinhuang Lin,
  • Qianqian Wei,
  • Xiaosan Zhang

摘要

China, the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter, announced during the 75th session of the UN General Assembly that it aims to reach its peak emissions by 2030. As the greenest province in China, Fujian’s carbon peaking trajectory holds significant demonstrative value for the nation and other provinces in achieving the “Dual Carbon” goals. We establish a carbon emission system dynamics (SD) model to predict the timing and value of carbon peaking in Fujian under various scenarios, and employ the Interlink Decision Making Index (IDMI) method to assess the feasibility of these scenarios. The results specify the following: (1) In the baseline scenario, which lacks policy constraints, Fujian faces significant challenges in achieving the carbon peaking target by 2030. (2) Eleven scenarios can reach the carbon peaking target, with peaking times concentrated between 2030 and 2033 and peaking values ranging from 30.932 to 31.900 million tons. Among these, five scenarios successfully meet the carbon peaking and emission intensity targets by 2030. (3) Without specific decision preferences, scenario XV emerges as the optimal carbon peaking path. However, when prioritizing total carbon emissions or the output value of the tertiary industry, scenario XVI is the most favourable.