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Abstract <p>New quality productive forces represent advanced productive capabilities that are characterized by advanced technology, high efficiency, and high quality. They emerge as critical drivers of manufacturing transformation during the digital economy era. Low-carbon trade competitiveness measures a region’s ability to maintain competitive advantages in international markets while achieving environmental sustainability through reduced carbon intensity in production and trade activities.</p> Objective <p>This study investigates how new quality productive forces influence the low-carbon trade competitiveness of China’s manufacturing sector. The research aims to identify the mediating pathways of technological upgrading and the moderating effects of environmental regulation. Tools: Using provincial panel data from 30 Chinese provinces covering 2011–2022, this study employs econometric methods including moderated intermediary effect models, dynamic spatial Durbin models, and system GMM estimation.</p> Output <p>The results indicate that new quality productive forces are positively associated with enhanced low-carbon trade competitiveness, with spatial spillover effects that exceed direct effects. Technology introduction and independent innovation serve as effective mediating mechanisms, while environmental regulation acts as a key moderator. Regional heterogeneity analysis reveals positive effects in eastern, central, and western regions, but negative effects in northeastern China. FDI heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that new quality productive forces exhibit significantly positive impacts in high FDI regions while showing constrained effectiveness in low FDI environments.</p> Real-world Application <p>These findings provide crucial guidance for policymakers worldwide developing strategies to enhance manufacturing competitiveness under global carbon constraints, particularly with emerging carbon border adjustment mechanisms. The results support international cooperation frameworks and technology transfer programs for achieving global carbon neutrality targets.</p>

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New quality productive forces and Low-Carbon trade competitiveness: evidence from Chinese manufacturing

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月27日

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  • Min Wang,
  • Kai Ren,
  • Chuang Yuan,
  • Youshi He

摘要

Abstract

New quality productive forces represent advanced productive capabilities that are characterized by advanced technology, high efficiency, and high quality. They emerge as critical drivers of manufacturing transformation during the digital economy era. Low-carbon trade competitiveness measures a region’s ability to maintain competitive advantages in international markets while achieving environmental sustainability through reduced carbon intensity in production and trade activities.

Objective

This study investigates how new quality productive forces influence the low-carbon trade competitiveness of China’s manufacturing sector. The research aims to identify the mediating pathways of technological upgrading and the moderating effects of environmental regulation. Tools: Using provincial panel data from 30 Chinese provinces covering 2011–2022, this study employs econometric methods including moderated intermediary effect models, dynamic spatial Durbin models, and system GMM estimation.

Output

The results indicate that new quality productive forces are positively associated with enhanced low-carbon trade competitiveness, with spatial spillover effects that exceed direct effects. Technology introduction and independent innovation serve as effective mediating mechanisms, while environmental regulation acts as a key moderator. Regional heterogeneity analysis reveals positive effects in eastern, central, and western regions, but negative effects in northeastern China. FDI heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that new quality productive forces exhibit significantly positive impacts in high FDI regions while showing constrained effectiveness in low FDI environments.

Real-world Application

These findings provide crucial guidance for policymakers worldwide developing strategies to enhance manufacturing competitiveness under global carbon constraints, particularly with emerging carbon border adjustment mechanisms. The results support international cooperation frameworks and technology transfer programs for achieving global carbon neutrality targets.