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<p>The degradation of forests and decline in ecosystem services challenge Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.2, emphasizing sustainable forest management and carbon conservation. The Korean Peninsula, divided between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), offers a unique context for examining land-use dynamics, carbon storage (CS), and forest degradation borders. This study assesses the impact of land use and development pathways on land cover change and CS by 2040 in the ROK and DPRK, and evaluates how these changes track progress toward SDG 15.2. Using globally accessible datasets, we developed a methodological framework combining the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) Carbon Storage and Sequestration model to simulate land cover changes and estimate CS. Four SDG-aligned scenarios were examined: natural development, ecological conservation, sustainable development, and economic development. Spatial statistical analysis and machine learning assessed spatial autocorrelation and driver relationships. In the ROK, sustainable and ecological development scenarios resulted in forest expansion and increased CS, supported by urban containment and environmental restoration policies. Conversely, the DPRK faced forest loss and cropland expansion under economic and natural development scenarios, reducing CS, especially in the northern regions. The models demonstrated high reliability, highlighting the robustness of the projections. This assessment reveals different land-carbon trajectories in the ROK and DPRK, driven by varying socioeconomic and environmental priorities. The findings provide a basis for monitoring SDG 15.2, highlighting the need to differentiate forest policy strategies, reforestation support, and collaboration in ecosystem services management.</p>

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An integrated assessment of proxies for forest degradation: supporting SDG 15.2 in the Korean Peninsula

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月26日

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  • Munkhnasan Lamchin,
  • Chul-Hee Lim,
  • Cholho Song,
  • Minwoo Roh,
  • Woo-Kyun Lee

摘要

The degradation of forests and decline in ecosystem services challenge Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.2, emphasizing sustainable forest management and carbon conservation. The Korean Peninsula, divided between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), offers a unique context for examining land-use dynamics, carbon storage (CS), and forest degradation borders. This study assesses the impact of land use and development pathways on land cover change and CS by 2040 in the ROK and DPRK, and evaluates how these changes track progress toward SDG 15.2. Using globally accessible datasets, we developed a methodological framework combining the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) Carbon Storage and Sequestration model to simulate land cover changes and estimate CS. Four SDG-aligned scenarios were examined: natural development, ecological conservation, sustainable development, and economic development. Spatial statistical analysis and machine learning assessed spatial autocorrelation and driver relationships. In the ROK, sustainable and ecological development scenarios resulted in forest expansion and increased CS, supported by urban containment and environmental restoration policies. Conversely, the DPRK faced forest loss and cropland expansion under economic and natural development scenarios, reducing CS, especially in the northern regions. The models demonstrated high reliability, highlighting the robustness of the projections. This assessment reveals different land-carbon trajectories in the ROK and DPRK, driven by varying socioeconomic and environmental priorities. The findings provide a basis for monitoring SDG 15.2, highlighting the need to differentiate forest policy strategies, reforestation support, and collaboration in ecosystem services management.