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<p>While agricultural systems must remain sustainable under normal conditions, they must demonstrate adaptability to extreme changes in production, economics, and the environment. Although China’s Techno-financial Cooperation Pilot (TFCP) policy is increasingly acknowledged as an important tool for enhancing economic resilience, rigorous quantitative analyses of its effects remain limited. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model and spatial econometric analysis, this study thoroughly measures the agricultural economic resilience of 276 Chinese cities between 2008 and 2022 and investigates how the TFCP policy has affected it. The results indicate that, first, TFCP implementation significantly increased agricultural economic resilience by 5.42%, with the estimates remaining robust through multiple validation tests. Decomposition analysis indicates that the main effect is driven by boosting agricultural productivity and accelerating the development of modern industries in rural areas. Spatially, the TFCP’s phased rollout generated temporary spatial concentration effects during the initial implementation phases, where resource aggregation precedes broader diffusion. Notably, the TFCP has stronger impacts in regions with underdeveloped financial markets, smaller farm sizes, and lower climate risks. Overall, Policymakers should target TFCP expansion to regions with underdeveloped financial services and small-scale farms, bolster green-technology R&amp;D alongside value-chain finance, and establish cross-regional compensation funds and knowledge-sharing platforms to curb resource siphoning and accelerate innovation diffusion. Our findings underscore that integrating science-and-technology finance policies can effectively enhance agricultural resilience and drive sustainable modernisation in developing economies.</p>

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The dual impact of China’s TFCP policy: negative spillover and enhanced agricultural economic resilience

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月16日

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  • Ruiqian Xu,
  • Ziqiang Zhang

摘要

While agricultural systems must remain sustainable under normal conditions, they must demonstrate adaptability to extreme changes in production, economics, and the environment. Although China’s Techno-financial Cooperation Pilot (TFCP) policy is increasingly acknowledged as an important tool for enhancing economic resilience, rigorous quantitative analyses of its effects remain limited. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model and spatial econometric analysis, this study thoroughly measures the agricultural economic resilience of 276 Chinese cities between 2008 and 2022 and investigates how the TFCP policy has affected it. The results indicate that, first, TFCP implementation significantly increased agricultural economic resilience by 5.42%, with the estimates remaining robust through multiple validation tests. Decomposition analysis indicates that the main effect is driven by boosting agricultural productivity and accelerating the development of modern industries in rural areas. Spatially, the TFCP’s phased rollout generated temporary spatial concentration effects during the initial implementation phases, where resource aggregation precedes broader diffusion. Notably, the TFCP has stronger impacts in regions with underdeveloped financial markets, smaller farm sizes, and lower climate risks. Overall, Policymakers should target TFCP expansion to regions with underdeveloped financial services and small-scale farms, bolster green-technology R&D alongside value-chain finance, and establish cross-regional compensation funds and knowledge-sharing platforms to curb resource siphoning and accelerate innovation diffusion. Our findings underscore that integrating science-and-technology finance policies can effectively enhance agricultural resilience and drive sustainable modernisation in developing economies.