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<p>Sino-US trade friction, as a manifestation of anti-globalization trade behavior, is poised to exert a substantial impact on global carbon emissions. However, the underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. This study employs the GTAP-E model to investigate the potential effects of Sino-US trade tensions on global trade flows, energy consumption, and carbon emissions from 2025 to 2050. We consider three tariff scenarios, accounting for both the presence and absence of Non-Tariff Barriers. The key findings are as follows: (1) Sino-US trade friction reduces trade volumes for most countries and regions globally, with the exception of non-US North America, Southeast Asia, and East Asia, where trade volumes increase. (2) The trade friction induces positive structural effects in North America (excluding the US), but negative structural effects in Southeast Asia, alongside a worldwide negative technological effect. (3) Carbon emissions intensify in Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East due to the trade friction, while they significantly decline in North America, Oceania, and China.</p>

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The cascading effects of the Sino-US trade friction on global carbon emissions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月23日

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  • Xiaozhe Li,
  • Weijing Ma,
  • Jingwen Kou,
  • Xiaoya Wang,
  • Tingting Liang,
  • Jinhuang Mao

摘要

Sino-US trade friction, as a manifestation of anti-globalization trade behavior, is poised to exert a substantial impact on global carbon emissions. However, the underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. This study employs the GTAP-E model to investigate the potential effects of Sino-US trade tensions on global trade flows, energy consumption, and carbon emissions from 2025 to 2050. We consider three tariff scenarios, accounting for both the presence and absence of Non-Tariff Barriers. The key findings are as follows: (1) Sino-US trade friction reduces trade volumes for most countries and regions globally, with the exception of non-US North America, Southeast Asia, and East Asia, where trade volumes increase. (2) The trade friction induces positive structural effects in North America (excluding the US), but negative structural effects in Southeast Asia, alongside a worldwide negative technological effect. (3) Carbon emissions intensify in Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East due to the trade friction, while they significantly decline in North America, Oceania, and China.