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<p>Reassessing carbon sequestration costs in light of the financial implications of the carbon market is crucial for mitigating global climate change and achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. However, existing studies have overlooked the impact of the evolving Chinese carbon market on carbon costs and the potential of carbon sinks. Therefore, this study employs an econometric model based on data from 29 provinces in China (1999–2023) to empirically examine the relationship between afforestation area and its associated costs. Expanding upon this model, this study incorporates carbon trade revenue as a cost-reducing factor to simulate the carbon sequestration potential achievable through cost adjustments in the carbon market and to identify the characteristics of optimal carbon sink projects across provinces. The results indicate, first, that the impacts of economic, natural, and social factors on afforestation area exhibit regional heterogeneity, with afforestation costs being a limiting factor for forest expansion. Second, based on the outcomes of the model, three scenarios are established, showing that optimizing project duration, reducing discount rates, and enhancing carbon sequestration are critical for minimizing costs. Afforestation priority in China is ranked as follows: West, East, North, South, and Northeast, with carbon compensation prices ranging from 72 to 3,030 CNY/tCO₂ across provinces. Third, considering time-varying sequestration capacity, China’s total optimal carbon sequestration potential is 219.48&#xa0;million tons, with offset prices ranging from 50 to 170 CNY/tCO₂. Maximizing sequestration favors an east-to-west project implementation strategy, whereas prioritizing economic benefits suggests a west-to-east approach. These findings advance the theoretical understanding of China’s carbon market and sequestration costs while also providing a scientific basis for optimizing carbon sink projects and policy design.</p>

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Impacts of carbon offset price on carbon afforestation cost and carbon sequestration potential in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月27日

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  • Xuemin Zhu,
  • Yanlun Yang

摘要

Reassessing carbon sequestration costs in light of the financial implications of the carbon market is crucial for mitigating global climate change and achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. However, existing studies have overlooked the impact of the evolving Chinese carbon market on carbon costs and the potential of carbon sinks. Therefore, this study employs an econometric model based on data from 29 provinces in China (1999–2023) to empirically examine the relationship between afforestation area and its associated costs. Expanding upon this model, this study incorporates carbon trade revenue as a cost-reducing factor to simulate the carbon sequestration potential achievable through cost adjustments in the carbon market and to identify the characteristics of optimal carbon sink projects across provinces. The results indicate, first, that the impacts of economic, natural, and social factors on afforestation area exhibit regional heterogeneity, with afforestation costs being a limiting factor for forest expansion. Second, based on the outcomes of the model, three scenarios are established, showing that optimizing project duration, reducing discount rates, and enhancing carbon sequestration are critical for minimizing costs. Afforestation priority in China is ranked as follows: West, East, North, South, and Northeast, with carbon compensation prices ranging from 72 to 3,030 CNY/tCO₂ across provinces. Third, considering time-varying sequestration capacity, China’s total optimal carbon sequestration potential is 219.48 million tons, with offset prices ranging from 50 to 170 CNY/tCO₂. Maximizing sequestration favors an east-to-west project implementation strategy, whereas prioritizing economic benefits suggests a west-to-east approach. These findings advance the theoretical understanding of China’s carbon market and sequestration costs while also providing a scientific basis for optimizing carbon sink projects and policy design.