<p>With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global oil market experienced historic turbulence, posing challenges to the stable development of the logistics industry. However, the intricate interplay between oil prices and the logistics sector has not received sufficient attention. In particular, when shifts in oil price regimes are driven by external conditions, the impacts of crude oil price fluctuations on the logistics industry and the underlying mechanisms of these effects remain unclear. This paper proposes a novel approach to model and analyze the effect of crude oil price volatility on China’s logistics industry under regime switching. Using the WTI spot price to represent global oil prices and the return rate of the SWS Logistics Index to assess the logistics sector, the study covers six sub-sectors from January 2010 to November 2022: raw materials; intermediate and consumer goods supply chains; express delivery; cross-border logistics; warehousing; and road freight. The results reveal that oil price fluctuations exhibit volatility clustering, asymmetry and price jumps across regimes. Additionally, oil price shocks demonstrate asymmetric effects under varying global market conditions. Critically, the impact of oil price shocks differs by regime: in high-volatility regimes, oil price fluctuations negatively affect the logistics industry’s profitability, whereas in low-volatility regimes, the effect is positive. These findings not only deepen our understanding of how oil prices influence the logistics sector but also provide valuable insights for policymakers and investors.</p>