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<p>Exploring the decoupling relationship between the land footprint and population growth (LF-PG) is essential for shaping sustainable urbanization paths. However, this investigation remains hindered by challenges related to limited interpretive capacity and uncertainties in future projections. This study investigated the mechanisms behind the LF-PG decoupling states and trends in Beijing’s per capita emergy land footprint (<i>elf</i>) at both provincial and grid scales. This work used the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to identify the influencing factors of LF-PG decoupling, along with Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the potential evolution trend of <i>elf</i>. The results revealed that the spatiotemporal dynamic fluctuations of <i>elf</i> were characterized by a transition from fossil fuel-centric consumption to an electricity-driven land footprint in Beijing from 2005 to 2019. Moreover, technological advancements drove a harmonious LF-PG decoupling state, despite ongoing land resource pressures. And Monte Carlo simulations projected a consistent annual increase in <i>elf</i> from 2020 to 2025, highlighting the imperative for technological innovations to alleviate land resource burdens. These findings provided actionable data for urban planners to support nuanced decision-making based on the evolving <i>elf</i> landscape across diverse scales. Furthermore, a fluctuating range of influencing factors was observed, helping to mitigate prediction uncertainties and offering valuable guidance for refining urbanization strategies.</p>

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Factors influencing the relationship between land footprint and population growth in beijing’s urbanization paths: an LMDI and Monte Carlo analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月13日

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  • Qiwei Gu,
  • Xiaohui Zhao,
  • Xiaowei Zheng,
  • Yinan Zheng,
  • Haichao Wang,
  • Xiaoli Dai,
  • Yan Wang

摘要

Exploring the decoupling relationship between the land footprint and population growth (LF-PG) is essential for shaping sustainable urbanization paths. However, this investigation remains hindered by challenges related to limited interpretive capacity and uncertainties in future projections. This study investigated the mechanisms behind the LF-PG decoupling states and trends in Beijing’s per capita emergy land footprint (elf) at both provincial and grid scales. This work used the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to identify the influencing factors of LF-PG decoupling, along with Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the potential evolution trend of elf. The results revealed that the spatiotemporal dynamic fluctuations of elf were characterized by a transition from fossil fuel-centric consumption to an electricity-driven land footprint in Beijing from 2005 to 2019. Moreover, technological advancements drove a harmonious LF-PG decoupling state, despite ongoing land resource pressures. And Monte Carlo simulations projected a consistent annual increase in elf from 2020 to 2025, highlighting the imperative for technological innovations to alleviate land resource burdens. These findings provided actionable data for urban planners to support nuanced decision-making based on the evolving elf landscape across diverse scales. Furthermore, a fluctuating range of influencing factors was observed, helping to mitigate prediction uncertainties and offering valuable guidance for refining urbanization strategies.