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<p>The nonlinear relationship between urban flood resilience (UFR) and urban high-quality development (UHD) presents critical challenges for sustainable urban governance under resource constraints and external shocks. This study constructs an integrated framework combining entropy weight method, super-efficiency SBM, coupling coordination degree (CCD), decoupling states (DS) models, and dynamic panel regression to examine the spatiotemporal interactions between UFR and UHD across 41 Yangtze River Delta cities from 2005 to 2022. Results demonstrate: (1) UFR exhibited a fluctuating upward but uneven trend, forming a core–periphery pattern, with Shanghai’s UFR index rising from 0.255 to 0.643, and strong spillover effects from core cities. UHD displayed a south–north disparity, with most cities remaining in transitional phases; notably, Huangshan rose from 10th to 1st, revealing non-core catch-up potential; (2) CCD increased by 150% on average, but nearly 30% of cities experienced a “rise-and-fall” trajectory, especially during the COVID- 19 period, underscoring the vulnerability of coordination dynamics to external shocks and short-term policy shifts; (3) decoupling dynamics reveal most cities undergoing a process of strong negative decoupling (SND) → expansive negative decoupling → SND, indicating the absence of a stable synergy, due to governance priorities; (4) dynamic panel results confirm strong path dependence in UFR (<i>β</i><sub><i>1</i></sub> = 0.938) and UHD (<i>β</i><sub><i>2</i></sub> = 0.275), while lagged UFR negatively affects UHD (<i>γ</i><sub><i>2</i></sub> = − 0.086), suggesting a trade-off between short-term resilience investment and long-term development.</p>

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Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and systemic conflicts in urban flood resilience-high quality development coupling: evidence from the Yangtze River Delta, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月22日

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  • Ludan Zhang,
  • Deyun Wang,
  • Jinwei Wang,
  • Yiqing Chen,
  • Wenkai Zhu

摘要

The nonlinear relationship between urban flood resilience (UFR) and urban high-quality development (UHD) presents critical challenges for sustainable urban governance under resource constraints and external shocks. This study constructs an integrated framework combining entropy weight method, super-efficiency SBM, coupling coordination degree (CCD), decoupling states (DS) models, and dynamic panel regression to examine the spatiotemporal interactions between UFR and UHD across 41 Yangtze River Delta cities from 2005 to 2022. Results demonstrate: (1) UFR exhibited a fluctuating upward but uneven trend, forming a core–periphery pattern, with Shanghai’s UFR index rising from 0.255 to 0.643, and strong spillover effects from core cities. UHD displayed a south–north disparity, with most cities remaining in transitional phases; notably, Huangshan rose from 10th to 1st, revealing non-core catch-up potential; (2) CCD increased by 150% on average, but nearly 30% of cities experienced a “rise-and-fall” trajectory, especially during the COVID- 19 period, underscoring the vulnerability of coordination dynamics to external shocks and short-term policy shifts; (3) decoupling dynamics reveal most cities undergoing a process of strong negative decoupling (SND) → expansive negative decoupling → SND, indicating the absence of a stable synergy, due to governance priorities; (4) dynamic panel results confirm strong path dependence in UFR (β1 = 0.938) and UHD (β2 = 0.275), while lagged UFR negatively affects UHD (γ2 = − 0.086), suggesting a trade-off between short-term resilience investment and long-term development.