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<p>Nigeria is dealing with two important issues at the same time: making sure more people have access to energy and lowering greenhouse gas emissions as promised under the Paris Agreement. These promises aim for a 20% reduction in emissions without extra help and a 47% reduction with help by 2030. Finding good ways to cut emissions while still growing the economy is key. This study uses a model called NECAL 2050, which is a version of the UK 2050 Calculator tailored for Nigeria. It looks at seven different future situations, including one that follows the current path and six that focus on cutting emissions with different levels of effort and use of technology. The model takes into account energy sources, how much energy is needed, land use, emissions, and air quality. The results show that without changes, emissions could go up to 604. 11&#xa0;million tons of CO₂e by 2050. However, Scenario 2 and Scenario 4 show big cuts, bringing emissions down to 277. 42 and 274. 60&#xa0;million tons respectively. These scenarios also cut air pollution by 75% and 76% compared to the current level. These paths focus on using a lot of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, using bioenergy widely, and using nuclear power in a planned way, while still using fossil fuels in a smaller way. Scenario 2 and 4 are the best options for Nigeria to reach its climate goals and improve energy security. Policymakers should choose these paths by focusing on renewable energy, efficiency, and smart use of nuclear power to make the energy system more sustainable and strong.</p>

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Nigeria’s sustainable energy future: NECAL 2050 simulations of low carbon pathways

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月5日

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  • Suleiman Bello,
  • Muyiwa Michael Orosun

摘要

Nigeria is dealing with two important issues at the same time: making sure more people have access to energy and lowering greenhouse gas emissions as promised under the Paris Agreement. These promises aim for a 20% reduction in emissions without extra help and a 47% reduction with help by 2030. Finding good ways to cut emissions while still growing the economy is key. This study uses a model called NECAL 2050, which is a version of the UK 2050 Calculator tailored for Nigeria. It looks at seven different future situations, including one that follows the current path and six that focus on cutting emissions with different levels of effort and use of technology. The model takes into account energy sources, how much energy is needed, land use, emissions, and air quality. The results show that without changes, emissions could go up to 604. 11 million tons of CO₂e by 2050. However, Scenario 2 and Scenario 4 show big cuts, bringing emissions down to 277. 42 and 274. 60 million tons respectively. These scenarios also cut air pollution by 75% and 76% compared to the current level. These paths focus on using a lot of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, using bioenergy widely, and using nuclear power in a planned way, while still using fossil fuels in a smaller way. Scenario 2 and 4 are the best options for Nigeria to reach its climate goals and improve energy security. Policymakers should choose these paths by focusing on renewable energy, efficiency, and smart use of nuclear power to make the energy system more sustainable and strong.