Sustainable development of the construction industry from a low-carbon perspective: a case study of Shandong province, China
摘要
The construction industry (CI) is a major sector for energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the design of low-carbon and sustainable development (LCSD) paths for CI has become a hot topic in academic research today. This paper takes the CI in Shandong Province as the research object and evaluates its LCSD capacity based on an indicator system and a carbon emission accounting model. It uses a system dynamics (SD) model to predict and conduct regulatory analysis on the LCSD of the CI. The study finds that the urbanization rate, GDP growth rate, change rate of R&D expenditure, and proportion of petroleum consumption are the key factors affecting the LCSD of the CI in Shandong Province. According to the optimal plan, the average annual CO2 emissions (CDE) of the CI in Shandong Province during the future planning years will be 104.45 million tons, which is 4.382 million tons lower than that in 2022 on average each year; by 2030, the level of sustainable development will increase by 47.1% compared with 2022. It is suggested that the government ought to boost investment in technological innovation within the construction sector and expedite the adjustment of the energy consumption structure in the CI.