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<p>Assessing regional carbon neutrality potential is critical for achieving “double carbon” goals. This paper proposes a dynamic decision-making model integrating Vlsekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) with grey bidirectional projection to evaluate carbon neutrality potential. First, we construct an indicator system (5 subsystems, 32 indicators) and introduce an improved criterion importance through intercriteria correlation-linear regression analysis (CRITIC-LRA) method to determine weights. The model combines grey correlation and bidirectional projection to compute utility/regret values, with time weights derived from the minimum variance method for dynamic analysis. An empirical analysis of 11 provinces/cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ) shows that: (1) Steady growth in carbon-neutral potential (rising utility/regret ratios); (2) Slowed development (declining utility ratio, stable regret ratio); and (3) Significant regional disparities, with Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai leading, while Hunan, Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Guizhou lag. According to the evaluation results, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for accelerating the process of carbon neutrality are provided.</p>

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Assessment of the carbon neutrality potential based on dynamic decision-making model with VIKOR-grey bidirectional projection: a case study from the Yangtze river economic zone in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月29日

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  • Cheng Wang,
  • Man Chen,
  • Yuanqing Zhou,
  • Congjun Rao

摘要

Assessing regional carbon neutrality potential is critical for achieving “double carbon” goals. This paper proposes a dynamic decision-making model integrating Vlsekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) with grey bidirectional projection to evaluate carbon neutrality potential. First, we construct an indicator system (5 subsystems, 32 indicators) and introduce an improved criterion importance through intercriteria correlation-linear regression analysis (CRITIC-LRA) method to determine weights. The model combines grey correlation and bidirectional projection to compute utility/regret values, with time weights derived from the minimum variance method for dynamic analysis. An empirical analysis of 11 provinces/cities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ) shows that: (1) Steady growth in carbon-neutral potential (rising utility/regret ratios); (2) Slowed development (declining utility ratio, stable regret ratio); and (3) Significant regional disparities, with Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai leading, while Hunan, Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Guizhou lag. According to the evaluation results, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for accelerating the process of carbon neutrality are provided.