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<p>Achieving national climate goals requires regional energy system low-carbon development, with coal-supplied regions playing a pivotal role in bridging the gaps in carbon emission reduction and air quality improvement. In this study, we developed an integrated framework that combines the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), Dynamic Projection Model for Emissions in China (DPEC), and a synergy index to systematically examine the interrelations between regional energy development and national climate objectives. The results indicate that current policies can mitigate carbon emission growth, with emissions projected to peak between 2030 and 2035. However, these policies are expected to fall short of achieving carbon neutrality by 70–90%. Encouragingly, efficient coal utilization and electrification exhibit significant potential to bridge this gap. Efficient coal utilization can reduce air pollutant in short term, with notable effects observed within approximately 10 years. The synergies between carbon reduction and air pollutant mitigation in energy development may be paradoxical. Notably, in efficient coal utilization, transportation exhibits a simultaneous increase in both carbon emissions and air pollutants. Electrification and integrated pathways are projected to contribute to approximately 80% of PM<sub>2.5</sub> reductions between 2040 and 2050, potentially exceeding the stringent 1.5&#xa0;°C goal in both magnitude and timeline. Integrated energy development can effectively optimize regional carbon reduction potential while maintaining long-term stability and sustainability of both aggregate and sectoral synergies. This study offers strategic recommendations for low-carbon energy development and provides valuable insights to support regional contributions toward national climate goals.</p>

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Efficient coal utilization and electrification: bridging the gap to carbon neutrality and air quality improvement in coal-supplied regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月22日

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  • Jianhui Cong,
  • Rentao Zhang,
  • Yina Zhang,
  • Yi Wu,
  • Pei Gao,
  • Yitong Chen,
  • Weiqiang Zhang,
  • Ze Yang

摘要

Achieving national climate goals requires regional energy system low-carbon development, with coal-supplied regions playing a pivotal role in bridging the gaps in carbon emission reduction and air quality improvement. In this study, we developed an integrated framework that combines the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), Dynamic Projection Model for Emissions in China (DPEC), and a synergy index to systematically examine the interrelations between regional energy development and national climate objectives. The results indicate that current policies can mitigate carbon emission growth, with emissions projected to peak between 2030 and 2035. However, these policies are expected to fall short of achieving carbon neutrality by 70–90%. Encouragingly, efficient coal utilization and electrification exhibit significant potential to bridge this gap. Efficient coal utilization can reduce air pollutant in short term, with notable effects observed within approximately 10 years. The synergies between carbon reduction and air pollutant mitigation in energy development may be paradoxical. Notably, in efficient coal utilization, transportation exhibits a simultaneous increase in both carbon emissions and air pollutants. Electrification and integrated pathways are projected to contribute to approximately 80% of PM2.5 reductions between 2040 and 2050, potentially exceeding the stringent 1.5 °C goal in both magnitude and timeline. Integrated energy development can effectively optimize regional carbon reduction potential while maintaining long-term stability and sustainability of both aggregate and sectoral synergies. This study offers strategic recommendations for low-carbon energy development and provides valuable insights to support regional contributions toward national climate goals.