<p>Changing climate has become a considerable challenge in forest management. Therefore, studies on the effects of climate on tree growth and the modeling of these responses have emerged as key research issues. This research aimed to analyze the impact of climate on the diameter and volume increments of poplar plantations in the north of Iran. The study focused on the relationships between tree growth (the diameter and volume increments) and climate parameters (temperature and precipitation), modeling this interaction and providing nonlinear models for the diameter and volume increments related to climate parameters. The models could be applicable to predict the volume and diameter increment of poplar under future climate conditions for each stand. Sample trees were selected from various diameter classes and felled for analysis in several plantations in northern Iran. Discs were obtained from these sample trees. The diameter and volume increments of the trees were assessed based on dendrochronological data analysis. Meteorological information (temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm)) was correlated with the ring analysis. The model of climate variables and growth parameters was developed using non-linear mixed effects models. The diameter and volume increment changes exhibited a sinusoidal decreasing trend. Precipitation showed minimal variations and maintained an almost constant trend. An increase in temperature (similar to precipitation) leads to a rise in the diameter and volume increments; however, an excessive increase in temperature adversely affects the tree’s increment. The Pearson correlation results indicated a negative correlation between temperature and tree increment. In addition, tree growth displayed a positive correlation with precipitation. Furthermore, the best climate-growth models were derived using a high coefficient of determination (R²) and a low standard error (SE). The findings demonstrated the close communication of climate in tree growth models. These results could assist forest managers and decision-makers in plantation management under climate change conditions, particularly regarding tree species selection in climate-sensitive conditions. In general, it appears that the impact of temperature was more significant on changes in trees increment rates. The higher temperatures inhibited trees increment due to constant precipitation in the humid climate conditions in the north of Iran. We concluded that the effects of rising temperature on growth reduction were more significant than precipitation.</p>

Modeling climate-growth correlations of poplar trees in North of Iran

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发表日期：

2025年8月22日

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Tooba Abedi,
Roya Abedi,
Hadi Modaberi

摘要

Changing climate has become a considerable challenge in forest management. Therefore, studies on the effects of climate on tree growth and the modeling of these responses have emerged as key research issues. This research aimed to analyze the impact of climate on the diameter and volume increments of poplar plantations in the north of Iran. The study focused on the relationships between tree growth (the diameter and volume increments) and climate parameters (temperature and precipitation), modeling this interaction and providing nonlinear models for the diameter and volume increments related to climate parameters. The models could be applicable to predict the volume and diameter increment of poplar under future climate conditions for each stand. Sample trees were selected from various diameter classes and felled for analysis in several plantations in northern Iran. Discs were obtained from these sample trees. The diameter and volume increments of the trees were assessed based on dendrochronological data analysis. Meteorological information (temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm)) was correlated with the ring analysis. The model of climate variables and growth parameters was developed using non-linear mixed effects models. The diameter and volume increment changes exhibited a sinusoidal decreasing trend. Precipitation showed minimal variations and maintained an almost constant trend. An increase in temperature (similar to precipitation) leads to a rise in the diameter and volume increments; however, an excessive increase in temperature adversely affects the tree’s increment. The Pearson correlation results indicated a negative correlation between temperature and tree increment. In addition, tree growth displayed a positive correlation with precipitation. Furthermore, the best climate-growth models were derived using a high coefficient of determination (R²) and a low standard error (SE). The findings demonstrated the close communication of climate in tree growth models. These results could assist forest managers and decision-makers in plantation management under climate change conditions, particularly regarding tree species selection in climate-sensitive conditions. In general, it appears that the impact of temperature was more significant on changes in trees increment rates. The higher temperatures inhibited trees increment due to constant precipitation in the humid climate conditions in the north of Iran. We concluded that the effects of rising temperature on growth reduction were more significant than precipitation.