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<p>Understanding land use/cover change (LUCC) dynamics in the Yangtze River Basin is crucial for effective watershed management and land use policy formulation. Based on land use data from 1980 to 2020 in the Yangtze River Basin, this study used land use analysis models to explore the characteristics and hotspots of LUCC. The geographic detector was applied to identify the driving factors during different periods, and the ecological risk model revealed the evolution of ecological risk across the basin. Results indicate a shift in the dominant drivers of LUCC from socioeconomic factors to natural geographic factors, with an increasing role of multi-factor interactions. Before 2000, the expansion of built-up land and waterbodies dominated changes, whereas frequent mutual conversions among cropland, woodland, and grassland prevailed after 2000. The total area undergoing LUCC after 2000 was 10.2 times larger than before 2000. Approximately 70% of LUCC events involved transitional changes, with the most prominent shifts occurring upstream. Continued land development has increased ecological risk across 3.1 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. Overall, basin-wide land use transitioned from rapid development of available land towards encroachment on ecological land. Complex land type inter-conversions contributed to the clustering of relatively-high-risk and high-risk ecological zones. These findings underscore the necessity for spatially differentiated land management strategies and provide a scientific foundation for sustainable land use planning and ecological risk mitigation in the Yangtze River Basin.</p>

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Four-decade response of ecological risk to land use changes in the Yangtze River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月31日

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  • Haosen Xu,
  • Hua Wang,
  • Liang Dongfang,
  • Xiaomao Wu,
  • Yichuan Zeng,
  • Yuting Yan

摘要

Understanding land use/cover change (LUCC) dynamics in the Yangtze River Basin is crucial for effective watershed management and land use policy formulation. Based on land use data from 1980 to 2020 in the Yangtze River Basin, this study used land use analysis models to explore the characteristics and hotspots of LUCC. The geographic detector was applied to identify the driving factors during different periods, and the ecological risk model revealed the evolution of ecological risk across the basin. Results indicate a shift in the dominant drivers of LUCC from socioeconomic factors to natural geographic factors, with an increasing role of multi-factor interactions. Before 2000, the expansion of built-up land and waterbodies dominated changes, whereas frequent mutual conversions among cropland, woodland, and grassland prevailed after 2000. The total area undergoing LUCC after 2000 was 10.2 times larger than before 2000. Approximately 70% of LUCC events involved transitional changes, with the most prominent shifts occurring upstream. Continued land development has increased ecological risk across 3.1 × 104 km2. Overall, basin-wide land use transitioned from rapid development of available land towards encroachment on ecological land. Complex land type inter-conversions contributed to the clustering of relatively-high-risk and high-risk ecological zones. These findings underscore the necessity for spatially differentiated land management strategies and provide a scientific foundation for sustainable land use planning and ecological risk mitigation in the Yangtze River Basin.