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<p>The mining and quarrying industry is vital to the global economy, providing essential raw materials for many sectors. China is a major importer of African minerals, deepening trade ties with Africa and shaping the economic and political landscape of the two regions. This study examines the economic and institutional factors that affect Africa-China mining and quarrying trade flows from 2010 to 2023, using a trade gravity model with methods such as Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), Random Effects, ET-Tobit, EK-Tobit, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Multinomial Poisson Maximum Likelihood (MPML). The results showed that the quality of institutions, especially the level of corruption, and political stability played a key role, with a 1% improvement corruption control level associated with an increment of $11.97 million mining exports in Africa and political stability adjusts volatility of mineral exports. Key economic factors, including GDP, the net barter trade index, and deflation have a positive impact on Africa's export capacity, while population size shows mixed effects on trade dynamics. The present study provides actionable policy recommendations for improving governance in the mining sector, adopt blockchain mechanism for tracing illegal mining, enforce strict contract terms for mining trade partnerships, and promoting sustainable development.</p>

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Economic and institutional factors influencing bilateral trade in mining and quarrying between China and Africa: a gravity model analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月22日

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  • Gizachew Dessalegn Gedefie,
  • Sanmang Wu,
  • Azmat Sher

摘要

The mining and quarrying industry is vital to the global economy, providing essential raw materials for many sectors. China is a major importer of African minerals, deepening trade ties with Africa and shaping the economic and political landscape of the two regions. This study examines the economic and institutional factors that affect Africa-China mining and quarrying trade flows from 2010 to 2023, using a trade gravity model with methods such as Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), Random Effects, ET-Tobit, EK-Tobit, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Multinomial Poisson Maximum Likelihood (MPML). The results showed that the quality of institutions, especially the level of corruption, and political stability played a key role, with a 1% improvement corruption control level associated with an increment of $11.97 million mining exports in Africa and political stability adjusts volatility of mineral exports. Key economic factors, including GDP, the net barter trade index, and deflation have a positive impact on Africa's export capacity, while population size shows mixed effects on trade dynamics. The present study provides actionable policy recommendations for improving governance in the mining sector, adopt blockchain mechanism for tracing illegal mining, enforce strict contract terms for mining trade partnerships, and promoting sustainable development.