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<p>As China's trade volume increases, the divergence between production-based accounting (PBA) and consumption-based accounting (CBA) carbon emissions has widened, while provincial-level carbon emissions reduction efforts have remained overly concentrated on PBA. Understanding the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions and their key drivers at the provincial level is pivotal for China to achieve its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study employs a multi-regional input–output model (MRIO) combined with structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to analyze the temporal-spatial evolution and driving factors of carbon emissions from both PBA and CBA perspectives, using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning the years 2012–2017. The results show a consistent annual increase in carbon emissions under both accounting frameworks, with significant disparities observed across eastern, central, and western regions. Provinces with industrialized economies and high energy consumption are the primary contributors to PBA carbon emissions, while areas with burgeoning economic growth but scarce energy resources dominate CBA carbon emissions. SDA indicates that final demand has been the major driver of emission growth, whereas carbon emission intensity has exerted a consistent mitigating effect. The input–output structure initially fueled emission growth from 2012 to 2015 but shifted to an inhibitory role by 2015–2017, with its mitigating impact accelerating over time. Finally, it is recommended to integrate CBA carbon emissions into China's low-carbon management policy framework and implement differentiated management measures for dual control of provincial carbon emission intensity and total volume, thereby facilitating the achievement of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.</p>

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Temporal-spatial evolution of bilateral carbon emissions and driving factors in 30 Chinese provinces during 2012–2017: an analysis based on MRIO-SDA method

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月19日

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  • Yanli Yang,
  • Qiyuan Yang,
  • Jianghui Zhang,
  • Junying Chen,
  • Saichuan Ma,
  • Yan He

摘要

As China's trade volume increases, the divergence between production-based accounting (PBA) and consumption-based accounting (CBA) carbon emissions has widened, while provincial-level carbon emissions reduction efforts have remained overly concentrated on PBA. Understanding the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions and their key drivers at the provincial level is pivotal for China to achieve its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study employs a multi-regional input–output model (MRIO) combined with structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to analyze the temporal-spatial evolution and driving factors of carbon emissions from both PBA and CBA perspectives, using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning the years 2012–2017. The results show a consistent annual increase in carbon emissions under both accounting frameworks, with significant disparities observed across eastern, central, and western regions. Provinces with industrialized economies and high energy consumption are the primary contributors to PBA carbon emissions, while areas with burgeoning economic growth but scarce energy resources dominate CBA carbon emissions. SDA indicates that final demand has been the major driver of emission growth, whereas carbon emission intensity has exerted a consistent mitigating effect. The input–output structure initially fueled emission growth from 2012 to 2015 but shifted to an inhibitory role by 2015–2017, with its mitigating impact accelerating over time. Finally, it is recommended to integrate CBA carbon emissions into China's low-carbon management policy framework and implement differentiated management measures for dual control of provincial carbon emission intensity and total volume, thereby facilitating the achievement of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.